Table 3.
AUCs and 95% CI of first or second fracture per SD decrease in various continuous muscle and BMD parameters
| Muscle and BMD parameters | Second fracture vs. non‐second fracture (45 vs. 221) | First fracture vs. never fracture (294 vs. 301) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unadjusted model | Adjusted model a | Unadjusted model | Adjusted model c | |||||
| AUC (95% CI) | P value b | AUC (95% CI) | P value b | AUC (95% CI) | P value b | AUC (95% CI) | P value b | |
| Muscle models | ||||||||
| ① G.MaxM area (cm2) | 0.632 (0.546, 0.719) | 0.65 | 0.731 (0.654, 0.808) | 0.88 | 0.739 (0.699, 0.779) | 0.55 | 0.776 (0.739, 0.814) | 0.01 |
| ② G.MaxM density (HU) | 0.654 (0.568, 0.741) | 0.46 | 0.747 (0.673, 0.820) | 0.40 | 0.831 (0.799, 0.863) | 0.43 | 0.840 (0.808, 0.871) | 0.89 |
| ③ G.Med/MinM density (HU) | 0.690 (0.611, 0.770) | 0.95 | 0.766 (0.697, 0.836) | 0.42 | 0.936 (0.918, 0.955) | 0.72 | 0.938 (0.920, 0.956) | 0.99 |
| ① + ② + ③ | 0.690 (0.612, 0.768) | 0.78 | 0.768 (0.699, 0.837) | 0.87 | 0.938 (0.919, 0.956) | 0.80 | 0.943 (0.926, 0.960) | 0.94 |
| ② + ③ | 0.685 (0.604, 0.766) | 0.67 | 0.768 (0.699, 0.837) | 0.87 | 0.937 (0.919, 0.956) | 0.63 | 0.940 (0.922, 0.957) | 1.00 |
| ① + ③ | 0.694 (0.617, 0.771) | 0.89 | 0.767 (0.697, 0.836) | 0.42 | 0.938 (0.919, 0.956) | 0.80 | 0.941 (0.924, 0.959) | 0.81 |
| BMD models | ||||||||
| ④ TH aBMD (g/cm2) | 0.670 (0.587, 0.753) | 0.31 | 0.754 (0.682, 0.826) | 0.56 | 0.830 (0.798, 0.862) | 0.86 | 0.864 (0.835, 0.893) | 0.94 |
| ⑤ FN aBMD (g/cm2) | 0.600 (0.506, 0.693) | 0.44 | 0.732 (0.656, 0.809) | 0.60 | 0.834 (0.802, 0.866) | 0.23 | 0.873 (0.845, 0.901) | 0.18 |
| ⑥ TR aBMD (g/cm2) | 0.655 (0.568, 0.742) | 0.42 | 0.744 (0.672, 0.817) | 0.90 | 0.849 (0.819, 0.880) | 0.44 | 0.864 (0.835, 0.893) | 0.49 |
| ⑦ IT aBMD (g/cm2) | 0.675 (0.593, 0.757) | 1.00 | 0.755 (0.682, 0.828) | 0.75 | 0.824 (0.792, 0.857) | 0.33 | 0.866 (0.837, 0.894) | 0.99 |
| ④ + ⑤ + ⑥ + ⑦ | 0.674 (0.592, 0.756) | 0.99 | 0.757 (0.685, 0.829) | 0.50 | 0.875 (0.848, 0.903) | 0.76 | 0.900 (0.876, 0.924) | 0.83 |
| ④ + ⑤ | 0.671 (0.588, 0.753) | 0.66 | 0.758 (0.686, 0.829) | 0.70 | 0.846 (0.815, 0.877) | 0.58 | 0.883 (0.856, 0.910) | 0.72 |
| ④ + ⑥ | 0.671 (0.588, 0.753) | 0.80 | 0.757 (0.685, 0.829) | 0.27 | 0.849 (0.818, 0.879) | 0.64 | 0.869 (0.840, 0.897) | 0.30 |
| ④ + ⑦ | 0.674 (0.592, 0.756) | 0.96 | 0.755 (0.682, 0.828) | 0.75 | 0.830 (0.798, 0.862) | 0.75 | 0.866 (0.838, 0.895) | 0.99 |
| Muscle and BMD models | ||||||||
| ① + ③ + ④ + ⑤ | 0.732 (0.664, 0.800) | 0.11 | 0.781 (0.715, 0.847) | 0.75 | 0.961 (0.947, 0.975) | 0.92 | 0.965 (0.952, 0.978) | 1.00 |
| ③ + ④ | 0.733 (0.665, 0.800) | 0.16 | 0.779 (0.712, 0.845) | 0.75 | 0.955 (0.941, 0.970) | 0.47 | 0.959 (0.945, 0.973) | 0.57 |
| ③ + ⑦ | 0.733 (0.664, 0.803) | 0.30 | 0.778 (0.712, 0.845) | 0.78 | 0.956 (0.942, 0.971) | 0.99 | 0.961 (0.947, 0.974) | 0.50 |
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BMD, bone mineral density; CI, confidence interval.
a
Adjusted for age, sex, type 2 diabetes, and Parker Mobility Score prior to first hip fracture surgery.
b
P value from the Hosmer–Lemeshow tests.
c
Adjusted for age, sex, and type 2 diabetes.