Table 2.

Model performance metrics in cross validation and hold out site samples

	NIR	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV	Kappa	ICI	AUC
Final month
10-fold CV	0.51	0.67 (0.61; 0.69)	0.64 (0.62; 0.70)	0.66 (0.62; 0.70)	0.65 (0.61; 0.69)	0.32 (0.26; 0.37)		0.74
LSO site 1	0.52	0.70 (0.57; 0.80)	0.59 (0.46; 0.71)	0.65 (0.53; 0.76)	0.64 (0.50; 0.76)	0.28 (0.12; 0.45)	0.05	0.71
LSO site 2	0.51	0.67 (0.54; 0.78)	0.70 (0.58; 0.81)	0.70 (0.57; 0.81)	0.67 (0.55; 0.78)	0.37 (0.21; 0.53)	0.04	0.72
Combined LSO	0.52	0.68 (0.60; 0.76)	0.65 (0.56; 0.73)	0.67 (0.59; 0.75)	0.66 (0.57; 0.74)	0.33 (0.21; 0.44)	0.03	0.71
First month
10-fold CV	0.53	0.76 (0.72; 0.79)	0.45 (0.41; 0.50)	0.61 (0.57; 0.64)	0.63 (0.58; 0.68)	0.22 (0.16; 0.27)		0.67
LSO site 1	0.59	0.86 (0.76; 0.93)	0.41 (0.28; 0.55)	0.68 (0.58; 0.77)	0.67 (0.48; 0.82)	0.28 (0.12; 0.44)	0.06	0.70
LSO site 2	0.52	0.52 (0.39; 0.65)	0.75 (0.63; 0.85)	0.63 (0.52; 0.73)	0.65 (0.50; 0.78)	0.27 (0.11; 0.43)	0.04	0.69
Combined LSO	0.56	0.81 (0.73, 0.87)	0.47 (0.37; 0.56)	0.66 (0.55; 0.76)	0.66 (0.58; 0.72)	0.28 (0.17; 0.40)	0.04	0.70
Heavy drinking between sessions
10-fold CV	0.66	0.77 (0.75; 0.79)	0.85 (0.84; 0.86)	0.73 (0.71; 0.74)	0.88 (0.87; 0.89)	0.61 (0.59; 0.63)		0.89
LSO site 1	0.60	0.71 (0.65; 0.76)	0.85 (0.81; 0.88)	0.76 (0.70; 0.81)	0.81 (0.77; 0.85)	0.56 (0.50; 0.62)	0.17	0.87
LSO site 2	0.66	0.54 (0.48; 0.60)	0.90 (0.86; 0.92)	0.73 (0.66; 0.79)	0.79 (0.75; 0.82)	0.46 (0.40; 0.53)	0.14	0.80
Combined LSO	0.63	0.63 (0.89; 0.67)	0.87 (0.85; 0.89)	0.75 (0.70; 0.78)	0.80 (0.77; 0.83)	0.52 (0.48; 0.57)	0.15	0.84

Note. NIR is no information rate. PPV is positive predictive value. NPV is negative predictive value. AUC is area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. ICI is integrated calibration index. LSO is leave site out. Parenthetical values are 95% confidence intervals.