Fig. 1.

Relationship between Out-migration & Probability District Reports Any Cases. Notes: Dependent variable: Indicator variable equal to 1 if the district had any COVID-19 cases on day t and 0 otherwise. Coefficients plotted in black (${\theta }_t$ in Eq. (2)) illustrate the relationship between international out-migration and an indicator for any cases in the district on day t. Coefficients plotted in gray (${\gamma }_t$ in Eq. (2)) illustrate the relationship between domestic out-migration and an indicator for any cases in the district on day t. State/Provincial/Country capitals have been omitted. The regressions include district-level controls: population, population density, the fraction of urban population, the fraction of population below the poverty line, and a measure of health access (Bangladesh: number of hospital beds per capita, India: number of primary health centers per capita, Pakistan: percentage of population which has access to a health clinic or hospital within 15 min of their dwelling) and day fixed effects. Standard errors are double-clustered by day and district. 95% confidence intervals shown.