Table 4.
Summary of key information from simulating scenarios. The table column (Global) Max Infected also records the date at which the largest number of infected individuals occurs. Row 1 summarizes our baseline simulation as seen in Fig. 3. Scenarios 1–4 summarize the simulations shown in Fig. 5, continuing the parameters to the end from the first, second, third, and fourth changes. The information found in Scenarios 5–8 was obtained by holding parameters from each given group constant for the duration of the simulation.
| Scenario | Max Infected (date) | Cumulative Confirmed Cases | Total in Hospital | 1st Hospital Peak (date) | 2nd Hospital Peak (date) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline simulation using estimated parameters | |||||
| Baseline | 70,322 (7/16/20) | 474,648 | 257,670 | 16,123 (7/20/20) | 14,922 (1/8/21) |
| Summarizing simulations inFig. 5 | |||||
| 1 | 1,402,803 (9/18/20) | 6,906,308 | 3,822,977 | 385,847 (9/22/20) | N/A |
| 2 | 70,323 (7/16/20) | 226,514 | 125,276 | 16,123 (7/19/20) | N/A |
| 3 | 836,901 (3/18/21) | 2,823,107 | 1,557,400 | 16,123 (7/20/20) | 1,118,056 (3/25/21) |
| 4 | 70,323 (7/16/20) | 416,728 | 230,551 | 16,123 (7/20/20) | 14,922 (1/8/21) |
| Fixing parameters from a given section for duration | |||||
| 5 | 456 (3/30/20) | 724 | 287 | N/A | N/A |
| 6 | 937,647 (10/23/20) | 2,804,247 | 1,552,217 | 125,081 (10/30/20) | N/A |
| 7 | 456 (3/30/20) | 750 | 300 | N/A | N/A |
| 8 | 837,389 (11/14/20) | 5,302,811 | 2,935,303 | 214,753 (11/19/20) | N/A |