Table 2.

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis parameters

Programme	Baseline incidence (cases per person per year)	Cost estimate (USD)	Standard deviation of cost	Effect estimate (IRR)	Standard deviation of effect (on log scale)
Ghana AIRS/VectorLink Northeastern and Northern Regions	0.39	5.21	1.43	0.60	0.11
Mali AIRS/VectorLink Mopti Region	0.26	7.76	1.43	0.68	0.20
Uganda Abt bilateral Northern and Eastern Regions	0.20	5.53	1.43	0.53	0.20
Zambia AIRS/VectorLink Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga, Northern Provinces	0.21	3.35	1.43	0.88	0.20
Global sensitivity analysis	Varied (from 0.001 to 1 per person-year)	5.33	1.43	0.67	0.15

Additional parameters	Parameter	Point estimate	Distribution	Sensitivity	Distribution
Case fatality rate	Proportion of incident cases resulting in death	0.002	Fixed	Reduced by 50% to 0.001 in global probabilistic sensitivity analysis	N/A
DALYs per death	Estimated number of DALYs accrued per each death	33	Fixed	Not analysed	N/A

AIRS, Africa Indoor Residual Spraying Project; DALY, disability-adjusted life year; IRR, incidence rate ratio; N/A, not applicable; USD, US dollars