Table 7.

Best fit forecasting model given by ARIMA (death cases)

Coefficients:	ar1	ma1	ma2
	0.8918	− 1.4062	0.6152
s.e	0.0341	0.0476	0.0397
sigma^2 estimated as 208.8:		log likelihood = − 1524.47
AIC = 3056.93	AICc = 3057.04	BIC = 3072.62