Table 2.
Race | Sex | Months to Death Post Diagnosis | Target | Original Model Predictions (Mean) | ABC Rejection (ε = 2) Calibrated Model Predictions (Mean, 90% Credible Interval) | ABC MCMC (h = 0.5) Calibrated Model Predictions (Mean, 90% Credible Interval) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||
White | Men | |||||
25–36 Months | 3.90 | 0.48 | 2.69 [1.68, 4.01] | 2.92 [2.08, 3.86] | ||
37–48 Months | 5.43 | 1.15 | 4.88 [3.34, 6.88] | 5.14 [3.86, 6.52] | ||
49–60 Months | 6.74 | 1.75 | 7.33 [5.13, 9.75] | 7.48 [5.77, 9.11] | ||
61–72 Months | 8.47 | 2.65 | 9.75 [6.85, 12.94] | 9.71 [7.59, 11.85] | ||
Women | ||||||
25–36 Months | 5.04 | 0.52 | 3.32 [2.15, 4.71] | 3.60 [2.62, 4.72] | ||
37–48 Months | 7.24 | 1.11 | 5.85 [4.24, 7.90] | 6.11 [4.65, 7.54] | ||
49–60 Months | 9.81 | 1.93 | 8.70 [6.39, 11.22] | 8.80 [6.87, 10.66] | ||
61–72 Months | 12.64 | 2.96 | 12.17 [8.96, 15.55] | 12.01 [9.59, 14.51] | ||
Black | Men | |||||
25–36 Months | 4.79 | 0.24 | 2.78 [1.72, 4.22] | 3.07 [2.08, 4.08] | ||
37–48 Months | 6.16 | 0.54 | 4.71 [3.17, 6.76] | 5.03 [3.67, 6.40] | ||
49–60 Months | 8.61 | 0.83 | 7.28 [5.06, 9.82] | 7.56 [5.65, 9.46] | ||
61–72 Months | 10.29 | 1.36 | 10.56 [7.38, 13.86] | 10.65 [8.10, 13.19] | ||
Women | ||||||
25–36 Months | 4.34 | 0.28 | 3.58 [2.36, 5.06] | 3.87 [2.81, 4.92] | ||
37–48 Months | 6.85 | 0.51 | 6.02 [4.31, 8.06] | 6.31 [4.91, 7.80] | ||
49–60 Months | 9.04 | 1.03 | 8.90 [6.51, 11.46] | 9.03 [7.16, 11.03] | ||
61–72 Months | 11.31 | 1.46 | 12.59 [9.20, 16.01] | 12.45 [10.19, 15.01] | ||
Other | Men | |||||
25–36 Months | 3.42 | 0.24 | 2.05 [1.15, 3.36] | 2.34 [1.54, 3.20] | ||
37–48 Months | 5.20 | 0.62 | 3.48 [2.14, 5.28] | 3.87 [2.70, 5.08] | ||
49–60 Months | 6.59 | 1.15 | 5.54 [3.51, 8.01] | 5.88 [4.18, 7.57] | ||
61–72 Months | 7.14 | 1.46 | 7.87 [4.86, 11.16] | 8.14 [5.86, 10.46] | ||
Women | ||||||
25–36 Months | 3.40 | 0.39 | 2.54 [1.51, 3.86] | 2.86 [1.95, 3.84] | ||
37–48 Months | 4.83 | 0.62 | 4.43 [2.85, 6.33] | 4.80 [3.30, 6.27] | ||
49–60 Months | 6.74 | 1.11 | 6.48 [4.28, 9.09] | 6.78 [4.81, 8.63] | ||
61–72 Months | 8.64 | 1.61 | 8.79 [5.73, 12.14] | 9.00 [6.42, 11.52] |