Skip to main content
. 2022 Jun 15;19(191):20220173. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0173

Figure 5.

Figure 5.

Simulations of constant-strength and constant-speed interventions. Constant-strength (ac) and constant-speed (df) interventions are simulated using the renewal equation (see electronic supplementary material for details of simulations). (a,d) Daily incidence of infections caused by the wild-type (iwt(t), grey) and the variant (ivar(t), coloured). (b,e) Instantaneous reproduction number of the variant Rvar(t) calculated using equation (2.2). (c,f) Proportion of incidence of infections caused by the variant on a logit scale. Epidemic trajectories are calculated assuming rwt=0d1, δ = 0.1 d−1, rvar=0.1d1, G¯wt=5d and κ = 1/5 for pre-intervention conditions, and then introducing constant-strength and constant-speed interventions on day 30. The pre-intervention ratio between the mean generation interval G¯var/G¯wt is assumed to equal 1.5 (longer), 1 (equal) and 1/1.5 (shorter) for three different scenarios. The constant-strength and constant-speed interventions are identically modelled as illustrated in figure 4.