TABLE 1.
Input parameters of the model.
| Parameter | Baseline value | Lower limit | Upper limit | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survival model of sorafenib | Finn et al. (2020a); Ren et al. (2021) | ||||
| Log-logistic OS survival model | shape = 1.577 | ND | ND | ND | Model fitting |
| scale = 11.477 | |||||
| Lognormal PFS survival model | meanlog = 1.2942 | ND | ND | ND | Model fitting |
| sdlog = 0.8621 | |||||
| HR for OS (SB vs. sorafenib) | 0.570 | 0.43 | 0.75 | Lognormal | Network meta-analysis |
| HR for PFS (SB vs. sorafenib) | 0.570 | 0.47 | 0.70 | Lognormal | Network meta-analysis |
| HR for OS (AB vs. sorafenib) | 0.580 | 0.42 | 0.79 | Lognormal | Network meta-analysis |
| HR for PFS (AB vs. sorafenib) | 0.600 | 0.47 | 0.76 | Lognormal | Network meta-analysis |
| Drug cost (per month) | |||||
| Sintilimab | 1168.16 | 934.52 | 1401.79 | Gamma | Chinese drug (2021) |
| IBI305 | 2141.14 | 1712.91 | 2569.37 | Gamma | Chinese drug (2021) |
| Atezolizumab | 6738.57 | 5390.86 | 8086.29 | Gamma | Chinese drug (2021) |
| Bevacizumab | 2773.50 | 2218.80 | 3328.20 | Gamma | Chinese drug (2021) |
| Sorafenib | 1756.55 | ||||
| Second-line therapy (per month) | 2232.41 | 1785.93 | 2678.89 | Gamma | Chinese drug (2021) |
| Percentage receiving second-line treatment | |||||
| SB group | 29% | 23.2% | 34.8% | Beta | Ren et al. (2021) |
| AB group | 35% | 28% | 42% | Beta | Finn et al. (2020a) |
| Sorafenib | 57% | 45.6% | 68.4% | Beta | Finn et al. (2020a); Ren et al. (2021) |
| Test of AB (per month) | 179.53 | 143.62 | 215.44 | Gamma | Wen et al. (2021) |
| Test of SB (per month) | 179.53 | 143.62 | 215.44 | Gamma | Assumed equal to Test of AB (per month) |
| Test of sorafenib (per month) | 167.56 | 134.05 | 201.07 | Gamma | Wen et al. (2021) |
| Cost of follow-up in PFS (per month) | 114.00 | 91.20 | 136.80 | Gamma | Hou and Wu (2020) |
| Cost of follow-up in PD (per month) | 210.00 | 168.00 | 252.00 | Gamma | Hou and Wu (2020) |
| AEs cost (per event) | |||||
| Hypertension | 16.50 | 13.20 | 19.80 | Gamma | Wu et al. (2012) |
| Proteinuria | 147.40 | 117.92 | 176.88 | Gamma | Wu et al. (2012) |
| Nausea | 56.60 | 45.28 | 67.92 | Gamma | Wu et al. (2012) |
| Thrombocytopenia | 4536.20 | 3628.96 | 5443.44 | Gamma | Wu et al. (2012) |
| Diarrhea | 188 | 150.4 | 225.6 | Gamma | Hou and Wu (2020) |
| Palmar-plantar erythrodysesthesia syndrome | 15 | 12 | 18 | Gamma | Hou and Wu (2020) |
| AST | 357.00 | 285.60 | 428.40 | Gamma | Hou and Wu (2020) |
| ALT | 357.00 | 285.60 | 428.40 | Gamma | Hou and Wu (2020) |
| Health utility | |||||
| PFS state | 0.76 | 0.61 | 0.91 | Beta | Rabin and de Charro (2001) |
| PD state | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.82 | Beta | Rabin and de Charro (2001) |
| Disutility due to AEs (grade ≥ 3) | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.19 | Beta | Amdahl et al. (2016) |
| Death state | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Beta | |
OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; PD, progressive disease; HRs, hazard ratios; AEs, adverse events; ALT, alanine transaminase; AST, aspartate transaminase; SB, sintilimab plus a bevacizumab biosimilar (IBI305); AB, atezolizumab plus bevacizumab; ND, not determined.