Table 2.
Differences between observed and predicted numbers of paediatric asthma inpatient admissions and emergency department attendances by months in 2020 and 2021 compared to pre-pandemic years (2015–2019)
| Month | Number of inpatient admissions and ED attendances | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed number | Predicted number (95%CI) | Percentage difference from predicted number (%) (95% CI) | Observed number | Predicted number (95% CI) | Percentage difference from predicted number (%) (95% CI) | |
| Year 2020 | Year 2021 (up to 31st August) | |||||
| All children aged 2–17 years | ||||||
| All year | 1912 | 2223.4 (1230.58, 3216.22) | −14.01 (−40.55, 55.37) | 1452 | 2087.2 (940.79, 3233.61) | −30.43 (−55.1, 54.34) |
| JAN | 124 | 139.88 (53.63, 226.14) | −11.35 (−45.17, 131.23) | 73 | 143.27 (32.14, 254.41) | −49.05 (−71.31, 127.14) |
| FEB | 227 | 267.78 (181.48, 354.07) | −15.23 (−35.89, 25.08) | 234 | 240.59 (129.35, 351.83) | −2.74 (−33.49, 80.91) |
| MAR | 244 | 245.44 (159.11, 331.78) | −0.59 (−26.46, 53.35) | 254 | 223.34 (111.99, 334.68) | 13.73 (−24.11, 126.8) |
| APR | 60 | 192.61 (106.23, 278.98) | −68.85 (−78.49, −43.52) ** | 186 | 182.83 (71.38, 294.28) | 1.73 (−36.79, 160.59) |
| MAY | 76 | 248.82 (162.41, 335.24) | −69.46 (−77.33, −53.2) *** | 337 | 225.48 (113.92, 337.04) | 49.46 (−0.01, 195.82) |
| JUN | 211 | 199.03 (112.58, 285.49) | 6.01 (−26.09, 87.43) | 216 | 187.29 (75.63, 298.96) | 15.33 (−27.75, 185.61) |
| JUL | 165 | 137.81 (51.31, 224.31) | 19.73 (−26.44, 221.56) | 79 | 140.39 (28.61, 252.16) | −43.73 (−68.67, 176.12) |
| AUG | 198 | 240.54 (154, 327.08) | −17.69 (−39.46, 28.57) | 73 | 218.51 (106.62, 330.4) | −66.59 (−77.91, −31.53) *** |
| SEP | 163 | 189.23 (102.65, 275.81) | −13.86 (−40.9, 58.8) | |||
| OCT | 134 | 153.17 (66.54, 239.8) | −12.52 (−44.12, 101.37) | |||
| NOV | 208 | 210.91 (124.24, 297.58) | −1.38 (−30.1, 67.42) | |||
| DEC | 102 | 200.01 (113.3, 286.73) | −49 (−64.43, −9.97) * | |||
| Children aged 2–5 years | ||||||
| All year | 601 | 528.6 (−119.32, 1176.52) | – | 440 | 331.8 (−416.35, 1079.95) | – |
| JAN | 41 | 38.39 (−11.82, 88.59) | – | 16 | 26.5 (−36.29, 89.29) | – |
| FEB | 68 | 82.93 (32.7, 133.17) | −18.01 (−48.94, 107.96) | 83 | 56.89 (−5.98, 119.76) | – |
| MAR | 90 | 68.66 (18.39, 118.92) | 31.09 (−24.32, 389.37) | 88 | 46.57 (−16.37, 109.52) | – |
| APR | 9 | 55.07 (4.77, 105.37) | −83.66 (−91.46, 88.5) | 65 | 36.74 (−26.29, 99.76) | – |
| MAY | 8 | 57.4 (7.07, 107.73) | −86.06 (−92.57, 13.08) | 101 | 37.91 (−25.19, 101.02) | – |
| JUN | 70 | 40.36 (−10, 90.72) | – | 61 | 25.68 (−37.51, 88.87) | – |
| JUL | 51 | 27.46 (−22.93, 77.86) | – | 12 | 16.32 (−46.95, 79.59) | – |
| AUG | 59 | 72.7 (22.28, 123.13) | −18.85 (−52.08, 164.83) | 14 | 47.19 (−16.16, 110.55) | – |
| SEP | 49 | 46.66 (−3.8, 97.12) | – | |||
| OCT | 62 | 33.77 (−16.73, 84.26) | – | |||
| NOV | 67 | 44.4 (−6.12, 94.93) | – | |||
| DEC | 27 | 52.27 (1.71, 102.84) | −48.35 (−73.74, 1478.79) | |||
| Children aged 6–11 years | ||||||
| All year | 977 | 1176.4 (742.15, 1610.65) | −16.95 (−39.34, 31.64) | 737 | 1171.6 (670.17, 1673.03) | −37.09 (−55.95, 9.97) |
| JAN | 50 | 68.3 (17.98, 118.62) | −26.79 (−57.85, 178.11) | 39 | 79.32 (16.95, 141.68) | −50.83 (−72.47, 130.06) |
| FEB | 123 | 133 (82.64, 183.35) | −7.52 (−32.91, 48.83) | 113 | 122.92 (60.48, 185.36) | −8.07 (−39.04, 86.85) |
| MAR | 114 | 124.24 (73.86, 174.62) | −8.24 (−34.71, 54.35) | 131 | 117.02 (54.5, 179.54) | 11.95 (−27.04, 140.37) |
| APR | 30 | 96.61 (46.2, 147.02) | −68.95 (−79.6, −35.06) * | 87 | 98.41 (35.81, 161.01) | −11.59 (−45.97, 142.98) |
| MAY | 50 | 128.29 (77.84, 178.73) | −61.02 (−72.03, −35.77) ** | 178 | 119.76 (57.07, 182.44) | 48.64 (−2.43, 211.87) |
| JUN | 110 | 112.12 (61.64, 162.59) | −1.89 (−32.35, 78.46) | 116 | 108.86 (46.1, 171.62) | 6.56 (−32.41, 151.63) |
| JUL | 79 | 77.08 (26.57, 127.59) | 2.49 (−38.08, 197.35) | 39 | 85.25 (22.41, 148.1) | −54.25 (−73.67, 74.06) |
| AUG | 110 | 113.47 (62.93, 164.01) | −3.06 (−32.93, 74.8) | 34 | 109.78 (46.85, 172.71) | −69.03 (−80.31, −27.43) * |
| SEP | 82 | 98.65 (48.07, 149.22) | −16.88 (−45.05, 70.58) | |||
| OCT | 56 | 79.11 (28.5, 129.72) | −29.21 (−56.83, 96.51) | |||
| NOV | 117 | 117.52 (66.88, 168.17) | −0.44 (−30.43, 74.95) | |||
| DEC | 56 | 101.35 (50.67, 152.03) | −44.75 (−63.17, 10.52) | |||
| Children aged 12–17 years | ||||||
| All year | 334 | 518.4 (401.75, 635.05) | −35.57 (−47.41, −16.86) ** | 275 | 583.8 (449.11, 718.49) | −52.89 (−61.73, −38.77) ** |
| JAN | 33 | 39.61 (27.34, 51.88) | −16.68 (−36.39, 20.71) | 18 | 45.92 (32.27, 59.57) | −60.8 (−69.78, −44.22) *** |
| FEB | 36 | 42.63 (30.35, 54.92) | −15.56 (−34.45, 18.62) | 38 | 47.38 (33.71, 61.06) | −19.8 (−37.77, 12.74) |
| MAR | 40 | 44.48 (32.18, 56.78) | −10.08 (−29.55, 24.29) | 35 | 48.39 (34.68, 62.09) | −27.67 (−43.63, 0.92) |
| APR | 21 | 41.22 (28.91, 53.54) | −49.06 (−60.77, −27.37) ** | 34 | 47.38 (33.65, 61.12) | −28.25 (−44.37, 1.04) |
| MAY | 18 | 50.53 (38.21, 62.86) | −64.38 (−71.37, −52.89) *** | 58 | 51.32 (37.55, 65.08) | 13.02 (−10.88, 54.46) |
| JUN | 31 | 44.13 (31.79, 56.48) | −29.76 (−45.11, −2.49) * | 39 | 49.08 (35.28, 62.88) | −20.54 (−37.97, 10.53) |
| JUL | 35 | 40.48 (28.13, 52.84) | −13.55 (−33.76, 24.43) | 28 | 47.92 (34.1, 61.75) | −41.57 (−54.66, −17.88) ** |
| AUG | 29 | 46.65 (34.28, 59.02) | −37.84 (−50.87, −15.4) ** | 25 | 50.62 (36.76, 64.48) | −50.61 (−61.23, −32) ** |
| SEP | 32 | 43.79 (31.4, 56.17) | −26.92 (−43.03, 1.91) | |||
| OCT | 16 | 44.06 (31.66, 56.47) | −63.69 (−71.67, −49.46) *** | |||
| NOV | 24 | 45.52 (33.1, 57.94) | −47.27 (−58.58, −27.49) *** | |||
| DEC | 19 | 45.01 (32.57, 57.45) | −57.79 (−66.93, −41.67) *** | |||
The numbers in bold highlight significant differences *p < 0.05
**p < 0.01
***p < 0.001