Table 3.

COVID-19 epidemic forecasting model comparison for Hubei province, China, between January 27, 2020, and February 29, 2020.

Model (lag) (model no.)	Model number	RMSEa	MAEb	MAPEc	Correlation	Incremental correlation	t198	P value
AR(1)+News(3)+ Mblog(1)+Query(3)	model i	325.216	225.620	0.168	0.990	0.984	N/Ad	N/A
AR(1)	model 1	658.238	403.665	0.267	0.963	0.958	–1.732	.09
AR(1)+News(2)	model 2	488.974	325.731	0.226	0.978	0.976	–1.196	.24
AR(1)+Mblog(1)	model 3	431.457	311.196	0.228	0.983	0.977	–0.252	.80
AR(1)+Query(3)	model 4	437.368	286.900	0.201	0.983	0.976	–0.364	.72
AR(1)+News(1)+ Mblog(1)+Query(1)	model 5	360.725	272.602	0.206	0.988	0.981	–0.965	.34

^aRMSE: root-mean-square error.

^bMAE: mean absolute error.

^cMAPE: mean absolute percentage error.

^dN/A: not applicable.