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. 2022 Mar 14;28(6):1314–1324. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01750-1

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — Effect estimates are expressed as the percent change in service level after the declaration of the pandemic compared to the average level pre-COVID-19. The percent change from the average pre-COVID-19 is calculated by dividing the coefficient for the COVID-19 period (β2) from regression models to the monthly average in the 15 months pre-COVID-19. Lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval (CI) are also divided by the monthly average pre-COVID-19 to be expressed as percentages. Regression coefficients and CIs are in Supplementary Tables 10–19. Countries are represented with International Organization for Standardization country codes.