Table 2.
Potential impact of simulated scenarios compared with the current burden of malaria in Benin
| Type of impact | Burden of malaria | No SF ACTs | All ACTs + no SF ACTs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 95% CI | Potential impact | % Diff | P value | Potential impact | % Diff | P value | |
| Health | ||||||||
| Average no. of malaria cases | 1,774,237 | 1,774,015–1,774,459 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Average no. of hospitalizations | 15,984 | 15,918–16,049 | 2,242 | –14% | < 0.001* | 3,033 | –19% | < 0.001* |
| Average no. of deaths | 6,526 | 6,479–6,572 | 693 | –11% | < 0.001* | 1,038 | –16% | < 0.001* |
| Economic | ||||||||
| Medication costs | $3,987,083 | $3,981,462–$3,992,704 | 465,156 | –12% | < 0.001* | 809,508 | –20% | < 0.001* |
| Out-of-pocket costs | $1,192,992 | $1,184,693–$1,201,291 | 138,136 | –12% | < 0.001* | 144,115 | –12% | < 0.001* |
| Facility costs | $3,744,985 | $3,718,230–$3,771,740 | 429,793 | –11% | < 0.001* | 467,716 | –12% | < 0.001* |
| Total direct costs | $8,925,060 | $8,896,570–$8,953,550 | 1,033,085 | –12% | < 0.001* | 1,421,339 | –16% | < 0.001* |
| Short-term productivity losses | $27,378,493 | $27,374,635–$27,382,351 | 3,069,029 | –11% | < 0.001* | 3,211,167 | –12% | < 0.001* |
| Lifetime productivity losses | $156,399,212 | $155,306,467–$157,491,958 | 16,718,318 | –11% | < 0.001* | 25,004,364 | –16% | < 0.001* |
| Total productivity losses | $183,777,705 | $182,685,025–$184,870,385 | 19,787,347 | –11% | < 0.001* | 28,215,531 | –15% | < 0.001* |
| Total economic impact | $192,702,765 | $191,608,898–$193,796,632 | 20,820,432 | –11% | < 0.001* | 29,636,870 | –15% | < 0.001* |
ACTs = artemisinin-based combination therapies; CI = confidence interval; % Diff = percentage difference of the scenario compared to baseline; SF = substandard or falsified.
*
P < 0.05.