Table 1.
Smoking and NVP prevalence, smoking and vaping-attributable deaths, life-years lost and public health impact for both genders combined, age 18 and above, 2021–2060
| Status quo scenario | |||||
| Category | Category/year | 2021 | 2026 | 2060 | Cumulative impact* |
| Prevalence | Menthol smoker | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | −55.7% |
| Non-menthol smoker | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.7% | −62.6% | |
| Total smokers† | 12.6% | 10.2% | 5.1% | −59.6% | |
| Former smoker | 19.4% | 18.4% | 9.2% | −52.7% | |
| Exclusive NVP user‡ | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 64.4% | |
| Former NVP user | 0.2% | 0.6% | 4.6% | 1972.5% | |
| Smoking and vaping-attributable deaths§ | Menthol smoker | 77 455 | 74 136 | 39 418 | 2 402 279 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 122 242 | 106 124 | 37 923 | 2 909 245 | |
| Former smoker | 175 798 | 189 490 | 192 368 | 8 500 851 | |
| Exclusive NVP user‡ | 5031 | 7296 | 11 032 | 392 107 | |
| Former NVP user | 0 | 0 | 1717 | 12 811 | |
| Total | 380 525 | 377 046 | 282 457 | 14 217 294 | |
| Life-years lost | Menthol smoker | 1 335 250 | 1 242 012 | 556 131 | 37 846 630 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 1 949 502 | 1 655 744 | 581 810 | 45 122 020 | |
| Former smoker | 1 323 247 | 1 404 460 | 1 050 414 | 53 496 563 | |
| Exclusive NVP user | 86 635 | 122 874 | 181 241 | 6 494 346 | |
| Former smoker-NVP user | 85 815 | 117 704 | 50 734 | 4 246 249 | |
| Former NVP user | 0 | 2 | 32 110 | 278 716 | |
| Total | 4 694 635 | 4 425 092 | 2 401 706 | 143 238 275 | |
| Menthol ban scenario | |||||
| Category | Category/year | 2021 | 2026 | 2060 | Cumulative impact* |
| Prevalence | Menthol smoker | 5.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | −98.5% |
| Non-menthol smoker | 7.1% | 8.4% | 4.2% | −40.9% | |
| Total smokers† | 12.6% | 8.7% | 4.3% | −65.7% | |
| Former smoker | 19.4% | 19.1% | 9.2% | −52.4% | |
| Exclusive NVP user‡ | 3.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 108.0% | |
| Former NVP user | 0.2% | 0.6% | 5.6% | 2418.0% | |
| Smoking and vaping-attributable deaths§ | Menthol smoker | 77 455 | 6792 | 2557 | 271 469 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 122 242 | 151 299 | 55 379 | 4 157 520 | |
| Former smoker | 175 798 | 191 098 | 195 744 | 8 620 599 | |
| Exclusive NVP user | 5031 | 10 768 | 12 859 | 499 475 | |
| Former smoker-NVP user | 5011 | 10 640 | 6815 | 413 819 | |
| Former NVP users | 0 | 0 | 1895 | 14 010 | |
| Total | 380 525 | 359 958 | 268 435 | 13 563 073 | |
| Life-years lost | Menthol smoker | 1 335 250 | 111 678 | 30 555 | 4 174 157 |
| Non-menthol smoker | 1 949 502 | 2 403 756 | 841 520 | 64 926 659 | |
| Former smoker | 1 323 247 | 1 424 993 | 1 065 194 | 54 531 402 | |
| Exclusive NVP user‡ | 86 635 | 122 874 | 181 241 | 6 494 346 | |
| Former smoker-NVP user | 85 815 | 168 033 | 56 050 | 5 418 265 | |
| Former NVP user | 0 | 2 | 35 817 | 306 840 | |
| Total | 4 694 635 | 4 113 651 | 2 182 890 | 131 927 198 | |
| Difference between menthol status quo and menthol ban scenario¶ | |||||
| Relative reduction in prevalence | Menthol smoker | – | −92.5% | −96.5% | – |
| Non-menthol smoker | – | 47.4% | 58.0% | – | |
| Total smokers† | – | −14.7% | −15.1% | – | |
| Total NVP users‡ | – | 22.6% | 26.5% | – | |
| Gain | Averted deaths | – | 17 088 | 14 022 | 654 221 |
| Averted life-years lost | – | 311 441 | 218 817 | 11 311 077 | |
*The cumulative impact is measured in terms of the relative change from 2021 to 2060 for prevalence rates (ie, (2060–2021)/2021) and the sum of the smoking and vaping-attributable deaths or life-years lost over the years 2021 through 2060.
†Total smokers include menthol and non-menthol smokers.
‡Exclusive NVP users include de novo exclusive NVP users and former smokers now using NVPs.
§The number of smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost is rounded to the nearest integer.
¶The difference between the Status quo and Menthol ban scenarios includes the comparisons for prevalence in relative terms and for health gains in absolute terms. Relative reduction in prevalence is measured as the relative difference between the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario (ie, (postban–preban)/preban) in years 2026 and 2060; the health gain is measured as the change in averted deaths and life-years lost from the Status quo scenario and the Menthol ban scenario.
NVP, nicotine vaping product.