Table 1.
Summary of parameter values and initial values of variables.
Variable | Description | Values/Source | Unit | References |
---|---|---|---|---|
Initial state values | ||||
Initial susceptible | population data | individuals | Philippine Statistics Authority (2020) | |
Initial exposed | fitted | individuals | ||
Initial infectious asymptomatic | fitted | individuals | ||
Initial infectious symptomatic | fitted | individuals | ||
Initial confirmed cases | actual data | individuals | Department of Health - Epidemiology Bureau (2020) | |
Initial recovered | 0 | individuals | assumed | |
Model parameter values | ||||
Basic reproduction number | 4.0, 3.0 | dimensionless | U.S. Centers for Disease and Control (2020) | |
Constant recruitment rate | population data | individuals/day | macrotrends, 2020a, Philippine Statistics Authority, 2020 | |
Natural death rate | 1/day | macrotrends (2020b) | ||
Baseline transmission rate | 0.4343, 0.3258 | 1/day | U.S. Centers for Disease and Control (2020) | |
Transmission reduction | fitted | 1/day | ||
Relative infectiousness of asymptomatics | 1.0000 | dimensionless | U.S. Centers for Disease and Control (2020) | |
Incubation period | 5.0000 | day | World Health Organization (2020b) | |
Proportion of asymptomatic infections | 0.1800 | dimensionless | Mizumoto et al. (2020) | |
Symptomatic transition | 0.3300 | 1/day | World Health Organization, 2020a, Mizumoto et al., 2020 | |
Undetected, asymptomatic recovery rate | 0.0714 | 1/day | World Health Organization (2020b) | |
Detection rate for asymptomatic | case data | 1/day | Department of Health - Epidemiology Bureau (2020) | |
Detection rate for symptomatic | case data | 1/day | Department of Health - Epidemiology Bureau (2020) | |
Post-detection recovery rate | 0.0404 | 1/day | Department of Health - Epidemiology Bureau (2020) | |
COVID-19 death rate, undetected | 0.0031 | 1/day | Department of Health - Epidemiology Bureau (2020) | |
COVID-19 death rate, detected | 0.0031 | 1/day | Department of Health - Epidemiology Bureau (2020) |