Table 6.
Timeline of model applications in policy-making.
| Phase | Purpose | Use of the Model | Policy Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 (March–April 2020) |
Understanding the local spread of COVID-19 in NCR and other regions | Projection of the peak of the epidemic curve Projection of the total numbers of cases and disease-related deaths |
Effectiveness of community quarantine, augmentation of resourcesa |
| Phase 2 (May–June 2020) |
Easing of lockdown restrictions | Introducing a transmission rate multiplier to account for targeted gradual increase in population mobility Scenario analysis using different values of the parameter which represents the health system capacity |
More relaxed community quarantine policies depending on the health and economic risk status of a locality; partial opening of business establishments; workers in certain sectors allowed to go back to work Improvements to health system capacity, particularly the increase in testingb |
| Phase 3 (July 2020 to mid-March 2021) |
Finding alternatives to community quarantine Continuous monitoring of case trajectories |
Scenario analysis using adjustments in the past monthly values of disease transmission rates combined with different values of | Opening up of the economy by relaxing community quarantine policies Stricter enforcement of health protocols, higher targets for testing and isolation, intensified contact tracing effortsc |
| Phase 4 (mid-March to June 2021) |
Determining the appropriate community quarantine policies brought about by the surge in case numbers | Transmission rate corresponding to each community quarantine policy adjusted to account for three factors: the presence of new variants, mobility, and compliance to health protocols | Changing community quarantine policies, from strict to more relaxed policies, in response to changing case trajectories |