Table 1.

Model parameters and their values.

Compartments& parameters	Interpretations	Value	Source
S(0)	Initial susceptible	24,870,838	Actual epidemic
Sq(0)	Initial quarantined susceptible	0	Actual epidemic
E(0)	Initial exposed	53	Actual epidemic
Eq(0)	Initial quarantined exposed	0	Actual epidemic
A(0)	Initial asymptomatic infectious	1	Actual epidemic
I(0)	Initial infected	1	Actual epidemic
H(0)	Initial hospitalized	2	Actual epidemic
R(0)	Initial removed	0	Actual epidemic
β	Infectious rate	0.041	MCMC
c0	Number of early contacts	20	Actual epidemic
c1	Number of minimum contacts	2	Actual epidemic
w	Index decline rate (t1 ≤ t < t2)	0.096	MCMC
r	Index decline rate (t ≥ t2)	3.060	MCMC
θ	Infectivity coefficient (exposed)	0.887	MCMC
k	Infectivity coefficient (asymptomatic infectious)	0.917	MCMC
q	Quarantine rate	0.150	Actual epidemic
σI	Incubation rate (exposed to infected)	1/7	Actual epidemic
σA	Incubation rate (exposed to asymptomatic infectious)	1/10	Actual epidemic
p	Proportion of asymptomatic infectious to infected	0.912	Actual epidemic
α	Mortality rate of the virus	0.002	Actual epidemic
λ	Quarantine release rate	1/14	Literature reports
γI	Recovery rate (infected)	0.086	MCMC
γA	Recovery rate (asymptomatic infectious)	0.104	MCMC
γH	Recovery rate (hospitalized)	0.114	MCMC
h	Decrease in antibody levels	0.700	Actual epidemic
v	Immunity threshold (vaccination rate × vaccine protection rate)	0.700	Actual epidemic
δI	Conversion rate of quarantine (infected/asymptomatic infectious to hospitalized)	0.775	MCMC
δq	Conversion rate of quarantine (quarantined exposed to hospitalized)	0.812	MCMC