Table 3.
Accuracy of different time-series models for predicting COVID-19 cumulative daily deaths.
| Method | Source | RMSE | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | Training | 38.17407 | 30.06568 |
| Testing | 34.05141 | 31.50445 | |
| Drift | Training | 25.76414 | 14.11472 |
| Testing | 33.95330 | 31.50954 | |
| Naïve | Training | 25.76424 | 14.10708 |
| Testing | 29.07091 | 26.64583 | |
| Holt | Training | 20.28812 | 11.70446 |
| Testing | 123.38359 | 98.10785 | |
| SES | Training | 20.27235 | 11.62327 |
| Testing | 37.35009 | 34.89225 | |
| ARIMA order SES | Training | 20.20818 | 11.58092 |
| Testing | 36.33789 | 33.86672 | |
| ARIMA order (2, 2, 2) | Training | 20.20818 | 11.58092 |
| Testing | 36.33789 | 33.86672 | |
| ARIMA auto | Training | 20.06109 | 11.54640 |
| Testing | 22.33402 | 20.61141 | |
| NNAR | Training | 10.36647 | 5.065002 |
| Testing | 12.89895 | 8.009270 |