. 2022 Apr 14;44(3):1641–1655. doi: 10.1007/s11357-022-00547-x

Table 3.

Sex-specific formulas for calculation of the risk prediction model for disability-free survival within 5 years

Model for women:

5-year risk (%) = (1−(4.787198 x 10⁻⁸ )^{exp (LP)} ) × 100%, with:

LP = 0.0812863 × Age−0.0785434 × 3MS−2.1058784 × Gait speed + 13.6499575 × (Gait speed−0.8391608)^3 (If Gait speed > 0.8391608)−27.8419999 × (Gait speed−0.9852217)^3 (If Gait speed > 0.9852217) + 14.1920424 × (Gait speed−1.1257036)^3 (If Gait Speed > 1.1257036)−0.0824954*BMI + 0.0022333 × (BMI−24.48889, 0)^3 (If BMI >−24.48889)−0.0040281 × (BMI−27.46667)^3 (If BMI > 27.46667) + 0.0017948 × (BMI−31.17188, 0)^3 (If BMI > 31.17188) + 0.3885922*(CES-D > 8)−0.0188137 × Grip strength + 0.2644989 × Diabetes

Model for men:

5-year risk (%) = (1−(5.304956 × 10⁻⁸)^{exp (LP)}) × 100%, with:

LP = 0.0791378 × Age−0.0614952 × 3MS−0.9872901 × Gait speed−0.0175855 × Grip strength−0.6700744 × (Smoking = Former/Never)−0.0809386 × BMI + 0.0034296 × (BMI−25.29407)^3 (If BMI > 25.29407)−0.0064518 × (BMI−27.55675)^3 (If BMI > 27.55675) + 0.0030222 × (BMI−30.12438)^3 (If BMI > 30.12438)−0.0157298 × eGFR + 0.0000532 × (eGFR−63.96903)^3 (If eGFR > 63.96903)−0.0001092 × (eGFR−74.24563)^3 (If eGFR > 74.24563) + 0.0000560 × (eGFR−84.00224)^3 (If eGFR > 84.00224)