Table 1.

Mental health predictions and outcome data to date.

prediction	outcome
‘The current pandemic increases the risk for suicide in at least four ways that require a far greater investment in suicide science, along with new approaches to suicide screenings and imminent risk assessments across all types of clinical care'.	COVID did not lead to an increase in suicide [32–36]. According to Aknin et al. [32, para. 7], ‘real-time data from official government sources in 21 countries showed no detectable increase in instances of suicide from April to July 2020, relative to previous years; in fact, suicide rates actually declined slightly within some countries, including the USA'.
‘Social isolation and ongoing media coverage focusing on social-environmental threat may result in increased rumination and worry that drive biological processes such as inflammation. Social isolation and stay-at-home orders also may interfere with the ability to experience positive affect, apply social strategies for regulating affect, and use rewarding experiences to offset negative emotions'.	There were only modest changes in people's ratings of loneliness and social connectedness [37–40].
‘It is thus reasonable to assume that the pandemic will be associated with a substantial, sustained, and potentially severe “mental health curve” that, like the prevalence of the virus itself, will also need flattening'.	There is no evidence of a full-blown mental health crisis [29]. Ratings of life satisfaction did not decrease [32,41]; the average satisfaction rating for the COVID year was identical to the previous year.
‘Many adolescents have increased their already remarkably frequent use of digital media to compensate for the loss of in-person social interactions, yet emerging research suggests that digitally mediated social interactions may be distinct in form and psychological function from face-to-face experiences'.	Digital technology use during COVID-19 was not associated with depressive and anxious symptoms or suicidal ideation at the within- or between-person levels [42,43]. Also, there was a general downward trend over the course of the pandemic in pornography use [44].
‘Anxiety and depressive symptoms are likely to increase during the COVID-19 pandemic…the COVID-19 pandemic is also likely to precipitate substantial increases in depression'.	Despite disruptions in school and greater social isolation, adolescents did not report increases in suicidal thinking [45] and their levels of depression and anxiety were fairly stable [46]. There was even some evidence that teens have experienced decreases in depression and loneliness during the pandemic [47].
‘Older adults are uniquely vulnerable during COVID-19, both physically and psychosocially. This abrupt physical threat and loss of social resources may increase risk for loneliness, isolation, and depression among older adults'.	The elderly did not report the greatest increase in mental health symptoms [45]. A number of studies showed that negative mental health symptoms were less prevalent in older adults than younger adults [38,42,48].
Omission of prediction in this case. This finding was not anticipated.	Young females with children under 5 years of age reported the most mental health distress [49–51].