Supplementary Table S2.

Biological Factors as Model Variables

Model Variables		Reported Baseline Levels in AD Lesion, Mean (CV)		Range
$c_4\left(t\right)$	IL-4/IL-13 level at t	39.2 (55) (Koppes et al., 2016)1,2	Fold change against healthy skin	—
$a\left(t\right)$	S. aureus level at t	3.4 (43) (Nakatsuji et al., 2021a)3	Log10 CFU/cm2	0‒amax
$h\left(t\right)$	CoNS level at t	2.0 (84) (Nakatsuji et al., 2021a)3	Log10 CFU/cm2	0‒hmax
$a_{\text{agr}}\left(t\right)$	Agr expression level at t	—4	—	0 (no effect) ∼1 (maximal effect)
$s\left(t\right)$	Skin barrier integrity at t	—4	—	0 (complete destruction) ∼1 (healthy state)
$e\left(t\right)$	EASI score at t	29.3 (49) (Blauvelt et al., 2017) 2,3,5	—	0‒72

Abbreviations: AD, atopic dermatitis; agr, accessory gene regulatory; EASI, Eczema Area and Severity Index; CFU, colony-forming unit; CoNS, coagulase-negative Staphylococcus; CV, coefficient of variation; IQR, interquartile range.

¹Patients with mild-to-moderate AD. Values are average of IL-4 (mean = 38.0, CV = 53%) and IL-13 (mean = 40.5, CV = 56).

²CV was estimated from IQR.

³Patients with moderate-to-severe AD.

⁴No reference data to be compared with simulated values.

⁵Mean baseline value of 29.0 for dupilumab treatment and 29.6 for placebo treatment in dupilumab clinical trial.