Table 4.
Diagnostic performance of the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) and European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) guidelines for common bile duct (CBD) stone prediction
| CBD stone status, n (%) | Diagnostic properties (95% CI) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidelines classification | Positive | Negative | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | LHR+ | AUC |
| ASGE 2019 | |||||||
| Low risk | 1 (0.3) | 11 (5.4) | 0.3 (0.0–1.7) | 94.6 (90.5–97.3) | 8.3 (0.2–38.5) | 0.06 (0.01–0.44) | 0.69 (0.65–0.73) |
| Intermediate risk | 50 (15.7) | 96 (47.3) | 15.7 (11.9–20.2) | 52.7 (45.6–59.7) | 34.2 (26.6–42.5) | 0.33 (0.25–0.44) | |
| High risk | 267 (84.0) | 96 (47.3) | 84.0 (79.5–87.8) | 52.7 (45.6–59.7) | 73.6 (68.7–78.1) | 1.78 (1.52–2.07) | |
| ESGE | |||||||
| Low risk | 8 (2.5) | 22 (10.8) | 2.5 (1.1–4.9) | 89.2 (84.1–93.1) | 26.7 (12.3–45.9) | 0.23 (0.11–0.51) | 0.68 (0.64–0.72) |
| Intermediate risk | 58 (18.2) | 91 (44.8) | 18.2 (14.2–22.9) | 55.2 (48.1–62.1) | 38.9 (31.1–47.2) | 0.41 (0.31–0.54) | |
| High risk | 252 (79.2) | 90 (44.3) | 79.2 (74.4–83.6) | 55.7 (48.5–62.6) | 73.7 (68.7–78.3) | 1.79 (1.52–2.11) | |
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; LHR+, positive likelihood ratio; PPV, positive predictive value.