Table 5.
Studies evaluating the high‐risk group predictive ability of the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) 2011, ASGE 2019, and European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) guidelines for common bile duct (CBD) stones
| n (%) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Study (ref number) (n = number of patients) | CBD stone prevalence | High‐risk prevalence | Stones in high‐risk patients | Sens. | Spec. | PPV | LHR+ (95% CI) | AUC (95% CI) |
| ASGE 2011 | ||||||||
| Adams et al. 27 (n = 498) | 210 (42.2) | 179 (35.9) | 99 (55.3) | 47.4 | 73.0 | 55.3 | 1.70 (1.34–2.15) | 0.60 (0.55–0.64) |
| He et al. 28 (n = 2724) | 1076 (39.5) | 1171 (43.0) | 750 (64.1) | 69.7 | 74.5 | 64.0 | 2.73 (2.49–2.99) | 0.72 (0.70–0.74) |
| Jacob et al. 13 (n = 267) | 192 (71.9) | 165 (61.8) | 131 (79.4) | 68.2 | 54.7 | 79.4 | 1.51 (1.15–1.96) | 0.61 (0.55–0.68) |
| Kuzu et al. 26 (n = 888) | 704 (79.3) | 550 (61.9) | 477 (86.7) | 67.8 | 60.3 | 86.7 | 1.71 (1.42–2.06) | 0.64 (0.60–0.68) |
| Magalhaes et al. 24 (n = 268) | 179 (66.8) | 193 (72.0) | 154 (79.8) | 86.0 | 56.2 | 79.8 | 1.96 (1.54–2.50) | 0.71 (0.65–0.77) |
| Rubin et al. 25 (n = 521) | 293 (56.2) | 264 (50.7) | 189 (71.6) | 64.5 | 67.1 | 71.6 | 1.96 (1.60–2.40) | 0.66 (0.62–0.70) |
| ASGE 2019 | ||||||||
| Jacob et al. 13 (n = 267) | 192 (71.9) | 86 (32.2) | 71 (82.6) | 37.0 | 80.0 | 82.6 | 1.85 (1.13–3.01) | 0.58 (0.53–0.64) |
| Jagtap et al. 14 (n = 1042) | 276 (26.5) | 230 (22.1) | 206 (89.6) | 74.6 | 96.9 | 89.6 | 23.82 (15.97–35.53) | 0.86 (0.83–0.88) |
| Lei et al. 15 (n = 879) | 622 (70.8) | 472 (53.7) | 370 (78.4) | 59.5 | 60.3 | 78.4 | 1.50 (1.27–1.77) | 0.60 (0.56–0.63) |
| Current study (n = 521) | 318 (61.0) | 363 (69.7) | 267 (73.6) | 84.0 | 52.7 | 73.6 | 1.78 (1.52–2.07) | 0.68 a (0.64–0.72) |
| ESGE | ||||||||
| Jagtap et al. 14 (n = 1042) | 276 (26.5) | 213 (20.4) | 205 (96.2) | 74.3 | 99.0 | 96.2 | 71.12 (35.57–142.19) | 0.87 (0.84–0.89) |
| Lei et al. 15 (n = 879) | 622 (70.8) | 338 (38.5) | 288 (85.2) | 46.3 | 80.5 | 85.2 | 2.38 (1.83–3.10) | 0.63 (0.60–0.67) |
| Current study (n = 521) | 318 (61.0) | 342 (65.6) | 252 (73.7) | 79.2 | 55.7 | 73.7 | 1.79 (1.52–2.11) | 0.67 a (0.63–0.72) |
a
AUC specific to the high‐risk group.
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; LHR+, positive likelihood ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; Sens., sensitivity; Spec., specificity.