Table 6.
Metric | Method | In-Hospital Mortality | Short-Term Mortality | Long-Term Mortality | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
48 h | 72 h | 30 Days | 1 Year | |||
AUROC | CART | 0.8101 | 0.8033 | 0.8006 | 0.7925 | 0.8471 |
LR | 0.8029 | 0.8659 | 0.8222 | 0.8224 | 0.9082 | |
MARS | 0.8124 | 0.8502 | 0.8195 | 0.8170 | 0.8716 | |
RF | 0.8415 | 0.8867 | 0.8498 | 0.8543 | 0.8953 | |
GB | 0.8489 | 0.8862 | 0.8542 | 0.8556 | 0.9171 | |
Specificity | CART | 0.7416 | 0.8425 | 0.7071 | 0.7544 | 0.8181 |
LR | 0.7352 | 0.7921 | 0.7455 | 0.7743 | 0.8521 | |
MARS | 0.5696 | 0.6243 | 0.5861 | 0.6344 | 0.7090 | |
RF | 0.1735 | 0.2408 | 0.1638 | 0.1900 | 0.3796 | |
GB | 0.7528 | 0.8712 | 0.7578 | 0.7907 | 0.9259 | |
Sensitivity | CART | 0.7460 | 0.7211 | 0.7864 | 0.7553 | 0.8080 |
LR | 0.7126 | 0.8188 | 0.7457 | 0.7158 | 0.8000 | |
MARS | 0.8599 | 0.8842 | 0.8665 | 0.8275 | 0.8480 | |
RF | 0.9912 | 0.9842 | 0.9970 | 0.9933 | 0.9760 | |
GB | 0.7810 | 0.7211 | 0.7864 | 0.7647 | 0.6720 | |
Precision | CART | 0.2323 | 0.1167 | 0.2179 | 0.2605 | 0.0788 |
LR | 0.2273 | 0.1041 | 0.2400 | 0.2756 | 0.0952 | |
MARS | 0.1731 | 0.0636 | 0.1785 | 0.2059 | 0.0531 | |
RF | 0.1117 | 0.0361 | 0.1101 | 0.1231 | 0.0294 | |
GB | 0.2487 | 0.1391 | 0.2520 | 0.2950 | 0.1487 | |
F1-Statistic | CART | 0.3542 | 0.2009 | 0.3413 | 0.3874 | 0.1436 |
LR | 0.3447 | 0.1848 | 0.3632 | 0.3979 | 0.1702 | |
MARS | 0.2882 | 0.1187 | 0.2960 | 0.3297 | 0.1000 | |
RF | 0.2007 | 0.0696 | 0.1983 | 0.2191 | 0.0571 | |
GB | 0.3773 | 0.2332 | 0.3817 | 0.4258 | 0.2435 |
CART, classification and regression trees; LR, logistic regression; MARS, multivariate adaptive regression splines; RF, random forest; and GB, gradient boosting.