Table 1.
Models | Benefits | Limitations |
---|---|---|
SARIMA/ SARIMAX |
Solid mathematical and statistical theory. Time-varying trends/seasonal patterns. Relatively few parameters. Handles exogenous variables. |
Difficulty tuning the model parameters. Usually computationally expensive. Prone to overfitting. |
FP | Supports seasonality with multiple periods. Robust to missing data. Does not require data interpolation. Handles outliers. Handles exogenous variables. |
Does not consider multiplicative models. Strict formatting requirement Restricted to Gaussian noise distribution. Does not take autocorrelation into account. Does not assume a stochastic trend. |
HW | Works best for data with trends and with seasonality that increases over time. The results are interpretable. Very easy to implement. |
The presence of outliers distorts the results. Not expanded to multivariable approach. Accounts for only a single seasonal pattern. |
LSTM | Learns information for an extended period. Mitigates the vanishing gradient problem. No specific assumptions. Handles exogenous variables. |
Computationally time-consuming. Sensitive to random weight initializations. Prone to overfitting. |
SARIMA: seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average; FP: Facebook Prophet; HW: Holt-Winters; LSTM: Long Short-Term Memory; and SARIMAX: seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average exogenous.