Table 3.
Models | Forecasting Horizon (in Days) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 30 | ||||||
RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | |
SARIMA | 33.57 | 26.58 | 32.73 | 26.03 | 28.81 | 22.28 | 47.59 | 39.97 | 96.20 | 89.92 |
FP | 43.82 | 34.74 | 45.94 | 41.62 | 54.50 | 51.15 | 60.67 | 57.27 | 53.75 | 49.99 |
HW | 28.42 | 21.29 | 28.19 | 21.32 | 30.20 | 23.07 | 38.47 | 32.34 | 89.74 | 84.09 |
LSTM | 29.92 | 23.64 | 29.94 | 23.65 | 30.70 | 23.92 | 30.43 | 23.97 | 31.32 | 24.52 |
Note: Green highlights the model with the best results. Interpretation: The LTSM model with a 30-day horizon had the lowest RMSE of 31.32 and lowest MAE of 24.52 of all four models, suggesting that the prediction of daily patients on a 30-day horizon was best accomplished with the LTSM model. MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error (units = patients).