Figure 1.

Global COVID-19 deaths averted due to vaccination based on excess mortality

(A) Median number of daily COVID-19 deaths based on excess mortality estimates (grey vertical bars) in the first year of vaccination. The baseline estimate of daily COVID-19 deaths from the model fit to excess mortality is plotted with the solid black line and the counterfactual scenario without vaccines is plotted with a red line. The gap between the red and black line indicates the deaths averted due to vaccination, with the proportion of total deaths averted by direct protection conferred by vaccination shown in blue and indirect protection shown in green. (B) Median number of daily deaths averted per day as per 2022 World Bank income group.