Table 1.
Estimated deaths averted in the first year of COVID-19 vaccinations worldwide based on fits to officially reported COVID-19 deaths
|
Total COVID-19 deaths |
Vaccination coverage (%) |
Estimated deaths averted by vaccinations |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Per 10 000 people | Per 10 000 vaccines | ||||
| Worldwide | 5 469 000 (5 339 000–5 613 000) | 38·30% | 14 400 000 (13 650 000–15 900 000) | 22·81 (21·63–25·18) | 25·99 (24·64–28·69) | |
| World Bank income group | ||||||
| High-income countries | 1 956 000 (1 892 000–2 032 000) | 68·80% | 6 353 000 (6 105 000–6 604 000) | 52·6 (50·54–54·67) | 36·67 (35·23–38·11) | |
| Upper-middle-income countries | 2 287 000 (2 220 000–2 355 000) | 50·10% | 2 914 000 (2 785 000–3 047 000) | 25·6 (24·47–26·77) | 23·36 (22·33–24·43) | |
| Lower-middle-income countries | 1 188 000 (1 099 000–1 302 000) | 29·80% | 5 083 000 (4 379 000–6 628 000) | 15·27 (13·16–19·91) | 20·39 (17·57–26·59) | |
| Low-income countries | 36 520 (33 390–40 410) | 3·57% | 20 380 (17 680–23 870) | 0·3188 (0·2766–0·3733) | 2·965 (2·572–3·472) | |
| WHO region | ||||||
| African region | 153 800 (145 100–164 700) | 5·48% | 97 190 (88 420–107 400) | 0·8677 (0·7894–0·9589) | 5·958 (5·420–6·584) | |
| Region of the Americas | 2 492 000 (2 418 000–2 576 000) | 58·30% | 3 813 000 (3 624 000–3 987 000) | 37·46 (35·6–39·17) | 29·28 (27·83–30·62) | |
| Eastern Mediterranean region | 318 700 (307 200–331 500) | 28·10% | 639 200 (581 600–707 700) | 8·746 (7·958–9·684) | 13·50 (12·28–14·95) | |
| European region | 1 628 000 (1 589 000–1 673 000) | 56·50% | 4 334 000 (4 214 000–4 487 000) | 46·77 (45·48–48·42) | 39·52 (38·43–40·92) | |
| South-East Asian region | 713 800 (635 900–807 000) | 35·40% | 3 913 000 (3 234 000–5 491 000) | 19·61 (16·21–27·52) | 21·63 (17·88–30·36) | |
| Western Pacific region | 149 000 (120 100–234 400) | 62·40% | 1 574 000 (1 267 000–1 839 000) | 30·14 (24·26–35·21) | 22·58 (18·18–26·38) | |
Deaths averted are presented as medians with 95% credible intervals, with values also presented per 10 000 total population and per 10 000 vaccinations (first or second dose). Vaccination coverage is the proportion of the population with a full dose in the modelled countries by Dec 8, 2021. Total deaths are all modelled deaths in the presence of vaccinations when fitted to reported deaths from the start of the pandemic up to Dec 8, 2021.