Table 2.
Estimated deaths averted in the first year of COVID-19 vaccinations worldwide based on fits to excess mortality
| Total excess deaths |
Estimated deaths averted by vaccinations |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Per 10 000 people | Per 10 000 vaccines | |||
| Worldwide | 17 990 000 (17 610 000–18 530 000) | 19 810 000 (19 130 000–20 380 000) | 31·21 (30·14–32·1) | 35·68 (34·47–36·71) | |
| World Bank income group | |||||
| High-income countries | 2 503 000 (2 412 000–2 609 000) | 8 004 000 (7 644 000–8 438 000) | 66·18 (63·20–69·77) | 46·14 (44·07–48·64) | |
| Upper-middle-income countries | 4 717 000 (4 611 000–4 827 000) | 4 230 000 (4 051 000–4 384 000) | 36·97 (35·40–38·31) | 33·71 (32·28–34·94) | |
| Lower-middle-income countries | 9 688 000 (9 329 000–10 170 000) | 7 401 000 (6 841 000–7 655 000) | 22·23 (20·55–23·00) | 29·69 (27·44–30·71) | |
| Low-income countries | 1 087 000 (1 068 000–1 106 000) | 180 300 (171 400–188 900) | 2·711 (2·576–2·840) | 26·23 (24·93–27·48) | |
| WHO region | |||||
| African region | 1 614 000 (1 580 000–1 652 000) | 466 400 (446 300–487 000) | 4·164 (3·985–4·348) | 28·59 (27·36–29·85) | |
| Region of the Americas | 3 354 000 (3 260 000–3 456 000) | 4 469 000 (4 233 000–4 728 000) | 43·89 (41·57–46·43) | 34·31 (32·50–36·29) | |
| Eastern Mediterranean region | 2 310 000 (2 248 000–2 376 000) | 992 800 (938 800–1 066 000) | 13·58 (12·85–14·59) | 20·97 (19·83–22·52) | |
| European region | 3 448 000 (3 347 000–3 568 000) | 5 811 000 (5 551 000–6 187 000) | 62·30 (59·51–66·33) | 52·63 (50·28–56·04) | |
| South-East Asian region | 6 741 000 (6 398 000–7 247 000) | 5 658 000 (5 114 000–5 858 000) | 27·99 (25·3–28·98) | 31·29 (28·28–32·39) | |
| Western Pacific region | 518 700 (489 200–547 800) | 2 429 000 (2 266 000–2 617 000) | 46·31 (43·21–49·91) | 34·74 (32·42–37·44) | |
Deaths averted are presented as medians with 95% credible intervals, with values also presented per 10 000 total population and per 10 000 vaccinations (first or second dose). Total deaths are all modelled deaths in the presence of vaccinations when fitted to excess mortality from the start of the pandemic up to Dec 8, 2021.