Table 3.
Estimated increase in deaths averted in the first year of COVID-19 vaccinations worldwide based on fits to excess mortality had all countries met either of the COVAX or WHO vaccination targets
|
COVAX target (20% of eligible population in COVAX Advance Market Commitment countries fully dosed) |
WHO target (40% of eligible population fully dosed) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Countries failing target | Increased vaccine coverage (%) | Additional deaths averted | Additional deaths averted* (%) | Countries failing target | Increased vaccine coverage (%) | Additional deaths averted | Additional deaths averted* (%) | ||
| Worldwide | 41 | 4·15% | 156 900 (147 800–165 400) | 0·792% (0·744–0·843) | 96 | 27·8% | 599 300 (577 700–622 400) | 3·03% (2·89–3·17) | |
| World Bank income group | |||||||||
| High-income countries | .. | .. | .. | .. | 1 | 0·00191% | 20 (20–30) | 0·000298% (0·000243–0·000342) | |
| Upper-middle-income countries | .. | .. | .. | .. | 27 | 6·1% | 51 110 (47 860–66 690) | 1·21% (1·12–1·58) | |
| Lower-middle-income countries | 16 | 4·28% | 75 540 (68 640–80 380) | 1·02% (0·923–1·13) | 41 | 39·7% | 347 500 (330 300–363 300) | 4·71% (4·43– 5·11) | |
| Low-income countries | 25 | 253% | 81 750 (75 430–88 200) | 45·2% (42·0–49·3) | 27 | 1060% | 200 000 (187 900–211 900) | 111% (105–118) | |
| WHO region | |||||||||
| African region | 31 | 134% | 132 700 (123 800–141 300) | 28·4% (26·5–30·4) | 44 | 631% | 348 900 (330 200–370 000) | 74·9% (70·7–78·8) | |
| Region of the Americas | 1 | 0·248% | 1080 (850–1390) | 0·0241% (0·0186–0·0308) | 14 | 1·66% | 6330 (5870–6840) | 0·141% (0·129–0·155) | |
| Eastern Mediterranean region | 6 | 5·56% | 20 850 (18 860–22 710) | 2·09% (1·86–2·32) | 13 | 61·6% | 126 800 (118 900–134 600) | 12·7% (11·6–13·7) | |
| European region | .. | .. | .. | .. | 13 | 3·05% | 41 760 (38 110–46 160) | 0·715% (0·644–0·799) | |
| South-East Asian region | 1 | 0·586% | 1410 (50–2960) | 0·0254% (0·000914–0·0532) | 7 | 17·5% | 70 420 (64 300–75 890) | 1·25% (1·15–1·39) | |
| African region | 2 | 0·302% | 900 (610–1200) | 0·0366% (0·0250–0·0492) | 5 | 2·59% | 4990 (4390–5730) | 0·205% (0·178–0·237) | |
Data are n (95% credible interval [CrI]) or % (95% CrI). All percentages are reported to 3 significant figures. Increased vaccination coverage is defined as the percentage increase in the proportion of the population with a full dose in all modelled countries when meeting the respective targets. Countries are grouped by 2022 World Bank income group and WHO region. COVAX=COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access.
*
In proportion to total deaths averted by vaccines, as shown in table 2.