Table 2.
Excess death estimates for 2020–2021 according to 6 evaluations in the 33 eligible countries*.
| Country | 2021 Population (millions) from HMD** | Two Years Actual All-Cause Death from HMD | Two Year Excess Death per eLife | Two Year Excess Death per Economist | Two Year Excess Death per Lancet | Two Year Excess Death per WHO | Two Year Excess Death per Levitt Age-Adjusted | Two Year Excess Death per Levitt Not Age-Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 24.547 | 277,603 | −11,639 | −9500 | −18,100 | −14,258 | −14,460 | −2116 |
| Austria | 8.935 | 180,363 | 15,261 | 16,877 | 18,300 | 11,941 | 13,007 | 15,343 |
| Belgium | 11.494 | 239,201 | 20,613 | 23,364 | 32,800 | 17,919 | 13,958 | 19,036 |
| Canada | 36.108 | 586,135 | 13,474 | 23,548 | 43,700 | 22,018 | 21,829 | 37,938 |
| Chile | 17.960 | 263,154 | 38,894 | 38,094 | 37,200 | 38,698 | 31,640 | 45,021 |
| Croatia | 4.051 | 119,871 | 16,826 | 19,186 | 22,900 | 17,178 | 12,205 | 16,050 |
| Czechia | 10.730 | 269,137 | 41,480 | 43,942 | 49,100 | 37,040 | 34,079 | 43,262 |
| Denmark | 5.864 | 111,772 | 913 | 2453 | 10,400 | 3716 | −3157 | 2390 |
| Estonia | 1.332 | 34,559 | 3172 | 3774 | 5630 | 3374 | 2675 | 3346 |
| Finland | 5.548 | 112,800 | 2662 | 4469 | 8780 | 2858 | −716 | 4345 |
| France | 65.467 | 1,297,407 | 78,910 | 97,390 | 155,000 | 81,849 | 57,767 | 96,831 |
| Germany | 82.533 | 2,005,701 | 88,446 | 113,242 | 203,000 | 194,987 | 54,740 | 128,557 |
| Greece | 10.711 | 274,725 | 24,177 | 25,269 | 25,400 | 19,394 | 20,515 | 29,551 |
| Hungary | 9.762 | 296,496 | 35,811 | 41,714 | 53,800 | 36,499 | 27,813 | 36,090 |
| Iceland | 0.362 | 4640 | 50 | −35 | −314 | −10 | −142 | 11 |
| Israel | 9.293 | 99,437 | 7203 | 7967 | 9280 | 6178 | 3201 | 5421 |
| Italy | 59.630 | 1,454,193 | 167,816 | 190,872 | 259,000 | 160,800 | 115,690 | 166,373 |
| Latvia | 1.906 | 63,088 | 6979 | 7851 | 12,400 | 7668 | 6046 | 7023 |
| Lithuania | 2.802 | 90,523 | 16,008 | 17,396 | 20,000 | 17,253 | 11,283 | 12,274 |
| Luxembourg | 0.635 | 9106 | 57 | 314 | 1070 | 69 | 109 | 171 |
| Netherlands | 17.479 | 339,242 | 28,495 | 33,017 | 45,500 | 29,213 | 17,969 | 32,020 |
| New Zealand | 5.013 | 67,586 | −2787 | −2566 | −872 | −2678 | −4118 | −1826 |
| Norway | 5.408 | 82,491 | 1101 | 1986 | 742 | −100 | −2994 | −182 |
| Poland | 38.482 | 998,284 | 157,247 | 171,806 | 214,000 | 157,531 | 149,722 | 182,454 |
| Portugal | 10.323 | 248,658 | 20,677 | 24,530 | 40,400 | 20,449 | 16,286 | 25,602 |
| Slovakia | 5.480 | 131,782 | 24,131 | 25,538 | 25,400 | 24,320 | 18,662 | 23,786 |
| Slovenia | 2.103 | 47,090 | 4953 | 5492 | 6980 | 5584 | 3944 | 5617 |
| South Korea | 51.631 | 621,862 | 7529 | 6967 | 4630 | 6289 | −30,286 | 33,417 |
| Spain | 47.511 | 948,016 | 102,991 | 115,685 | 162,000 | 103,935 | 68,720 | 95,964 |
| Sweden | 10.408 | 184,326 | 9926 | 11,976 | 18,100 | 11,253 | −367 | 3666 |
| Switzerland | 8.688 | 146,969 | 11,394 | 13,539 | 15,500 | 8247 | 5640 | 10,139 |
| United Kingdom | 67.145 | 1,353,941 | 136,795 | 148,889 | 169,000 | 148,896 | 87,307 | 125,716 |
| United States | 329.995 | 6,849,500 | 961,032 | 1,017,655 | 1,130,000 | 932,460 | 871,295 | 1,116,088 |
| TOTALS | 969.336 | 19,809,658 | 2,030,597 | 2,242,701 | 2,780,726 | 2,110,570 | 1,609,862 | 2,319,376 |
HMD, Human Mortality Database short-term mortality fluctuation file stmf.csv downloaded from https://www.mortality.org/Public/STMF/Outputs/stmf.csv on 1-May-2022.
Data is given for full two-year period 1-Jan-2020 to 31-Dec-2021 for all countries except for Australia to 2021 week 48 and Canada to 2021 week 48. Because we use a standard year of 365.25 days (52.1786 weeks), the two years 2020 & 2021 are 104.357 weeks. The HMD Total Deaths, Expected Deaths and Excess Deaths for Australia and Canada are all smaller than they would be if data for these two locations were no delayed.
Data in the HMD are summed over weeks available. This means that both the Total Deaths and Population are incomplete for Australia (to week 47) and Canada (to week 48).