Table 2.
Main results. See “Methods” section for explanations and SM2 excel file for detailed results. Columns M1-M9 and (1) represent the main results from the SROCC analysis, i.e. individual and aggregated scores per SLR scenario (a + 45 cm, + 83 cm, + 110 cm) and adaptation scenario (None-to-moderate (A), High (B)). Columns (2) and (3) present new analysis compared to the SROCC and form the bases of this paper. They describe the integer percentages used in the main manuscript in terms of the aggregated risk scores along the Undetectable-Extremely high risk scale (2) and the associated level of risk reduction per SLR scenario (3). Source: Ref.17.
| Scenarios | Assessment metrics (drivers of risk and adaptation) | Aggregated results | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMSL | Adaptation | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | (1) | (2) in % | (3) in % |
| Resource-rich cities | |||||||||||||
| Present-day | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | − 3 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | 6 | 8.0 | – | |
| + 43 cm | (A) | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | 13 | 17.3 | − 9.3 |
| (B) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | − 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8.0 | ||
| + 85 cm | (A) | 10 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | − 2 | 0 | 22 | 29.3 | − 20.0 |
| (B) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | − 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9.3 | ||
| + 110 cm | (A) | 12 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | − 3 | 0 | 27 | 36.0 | − 20.0 |
| (B) | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | − 2 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | 12 | 16.0 | ||
| Urban Atoll Islands | |||||||||||||
| Present-day | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24.0 | – | |
| + 43 cm | (A) | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 4 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 38.7 | − 9.3 |
| (B) | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 4 | − 4 | − 3 | − 3 | 0 | 22 | 29.3 | ||
| + 85 cm | (A) | 10 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 6 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 54.7 | − 9.3 |
| (B) | 10 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 6 | − 4 | 0 | − 6 | 0 | 34 | 45.3 | ||
| + 110 cm | (A) | 13 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 8 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 70.7 | − 13.3 |
| (B) | 13 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 8 | − 4 | 0 | − 9 | 0 | 43 | 57.3 | ||
| Large tropical agricultural deltas | |||||||||||||
| Present-day | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 16.0 | – | |
| + 43 cm | (A) | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24.0 | − 8.0 |
| (B) | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | − 3 | − 3 | 0 | − 2 | 12 | 16.0 | ||
| + 85 cm | (A) | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 34.7 | − 10.7 |
| (B) | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | − 4 | − 2 | − 3 | − 1 | 18 | 24.0 | ||
| + 110 cm | (A) | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 8 | − 2 | − 1 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 44.0 | − 8.0 |
| (B) | 4 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 8 | − 5 | − 1 | − 3 | 0 | 27 | 36.0 | ||
| Arctic communities | |||||||||||||
| Present-day | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | − 1 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | 18 | 24.0 | – | |
| + 43 cm | (A) | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 2 | − 1 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | 26 | 34.7 | − 4.0 |
| (B) | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 2 | − 2 | 0 | − 2 | 0 | 23 | 30.7 | ||
| + 85 cm | (A) | 6 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 3 | − 1 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | 36 | 48.0 | − 8.0 |
| (B) | 6 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 3 | − 3 | 0 | − 4 | 0 | 30 | 40.0 | ||
| + 110 cm | (A) | 7 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 3 | − 1 | 0 | − 1 | 0 | 40 | 53.3 | − 6.7 |
| (B) | 7 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 3 | − 3 | 0 | − 4 | 0 | 35 | 46.7 | ||
Assessment metrics: see Table 3 for detailed description of M1 to M9.
Aggregated results: (1) = aggregated risk score; (2) = % against end-century score range and along the Undetectable-Extremely high risk scale (0–75); (3) level of risk reduction per SLR scenario (in %, note that integer percentage are used in the main text).