Table 2.
Difference between observed deaths 2020-2021, and their expected values from a model for 2015–2019 that includes seasonality and secular trend term.
| Periodo: 2020:01 a 2021:52 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected deaths |
Observed deaths | Excess deaths |
Percentage excess deaths |
% of overall excess | ||||
| Number | (IC95%) | (Observed-expected) | (IC95%) | % | (95% CI) | |||
| I.B.01.b COVID-19 | 0 | (0, 0) | 439,582 | 439,582 | (439,582 to 439,582) | - | - | 73·2 |
| II.G.03.0 Ischaemic heart diseases | 249,327 | (238,957 to 259,698) | 330,463 | 81,136 | (70,765 to 91,506) | 32·5 | (27·2 to 38·3) | 13·5 |
| II.G.04.0 Cerebrovascular disease | 70,595 | (65,439 to 75,752) | 75,221 | 4626 | (-531 to 9782) | 6·6 | (-0·7 to 14·9) | 0·78 |
| II.G.02.0 Hypertensive diseases | 53,622 | (49,005 to 58,239) | 67,052 | 13,430 | (8813 to 18,047) | 25 | (15·1 to 36·8) | 2·2 |
| II.G Other cardiovascular diseases | 40,439 | (36,633 to 44,244) | 43,317 | 2878 | (-927 to 6684) | 7·1 | (-2·1 to 18·2) | 0·5 |
| II.C Diabetes mellitus | 218,363 | (209,135 to 227,591) | 298,657 | 80,294 | (71,066 to 89,522) | 36·8 | (31·2 to 42·8) | 13·4 |
| I.B Respiratory infections | 76,692 | (70,716 to 82,667) | 102,263 | 25,571 | (19,596 to 31,547) | 33·3 | (23·7 to 44·6) | 4·3 |
| II.D Other endocrine, metabolic, hematological, and immunological diseases | 21,462 | (18,549 to 24,375) | 26,614 | 5152 | (2239 to 8065) | 24 | (9·2 to 43·5) | 0·9 |
| IV.0. Ill-defined causes | 22,259 | (19,328 to 25,190) | 25,535 | 3276 | (345 to 6207) | 14·7 | (1·4 to 32·1) | 0·5 |
| III.A Motor vehicle road injuries | 15,226 | (13,074 to 17,377) | 17,063 | 1837 | (-314 to 3989) | 12·1 | (-1·8 to 30·5) | 0·3 |
| I.E Nutritional deficiencies | 20,968 | (18,110 to 23,827) | 22,510 | 1542 | (-1317 to 4400) | 7·4 | (-5·5 to 24·3) | 0·3 |
| II.J.01.0 Nephritis and nephrosis | 38,467 | (34,457 to 42,477) | 39148 | 681 | (-3329 to 4691) | 1·8 | (-7·8 to 13·6) | 0·1 |
| I.C Maternal disorders | 1091 | (491 to 1692) | 1233 | 142 | (-459 to 742) | 13 | (-27·1 to 151·1) | 0·0 |
| II.F Sense organ diseases | 58 | (-55 to 170) | 95 | 37 | (-75 to 150) | 63·8 | (-44·1 to -272·7) | 0·0 |
| II.N Oral disorders | 309 | (-26 to 645) | 337 | 28 | (-308 to 363) | 9·1 | (-47·8 to -1396·2) | 0·0 |
| III.B.01.0 Self-harm (suicides) | 13,903 | (11,349 to 16,456) | 13,692 | -211 | (-2764 to 2343) | -1·5 | (-16·8 to 20·6) | 0 |
| II.L Musculoskeletal disorders | 11,922 | (9635 to 14,209) | 11,263 | -659 | (-2946 to 1628) | -5·5 | (-20·7 to 16·9) | -0·1 |
| III.B.02.0 Assaults (homicides) | 53,454 | (48,870 to 58,038) | 52,717 | -737 | (-5321 to 3847) | -1·4 | (-9·2 to 7·9) | -0·1 |
| I.D Certain conditions originated in the perinatal period | 22,015 | (19,223 to 24,808) | 20,726 | -1289 | (-4082 to 1503) | -5·9 | (-16·5 to 7·8) | -0·2 |
| II.E Mental disorders and nervous system diseases | 35,443 | (31,642 to 39,244) | 33,912 | -1531 | (-5332 to 2270) | -4·3 | (-13·6 to 7·2) | -0·3 |
| II.M Congenital birth defects | 17,232 | (14,712 to 19,753) | 15,645 | -1587 | (-4108 to 933) | -9·2 | (-20·8 to 6·3) | -0·3 |
| II.K. Skin diseases | 9716 | (7681 to 11,751) | 8015 | -1701 | (-3736 to 334) | -17·5 | (-31·8 to 4·3) | -0·3 |
| II.J Other genitourinary system diseases | 19,575 | (16,651 to 22,499) | 16,623 | -2952 | (-5876 to -28) | -15·1 | (-26·1 to -0·2) | -0·5 |
| II.B Other neoplasms | 17,175 | (14,256 to 20,094) | 13,546 | -3629 | (-6548 to -710) | -21·1 | (-32·6 to -5·0) | -0·6 |
| II.H Chronic respiratory diseases | 74,362 | (69,043 to 79,681) | 70,503 | -3859 | (-9178 to 1460) | -5·2 | (-11·5 to 2·1) | -0·6 |
| III.C. Events (injuries) of undetermined intent | 25,212 | (21,684 to 28,740) | 19,622 | -5590 | (-9118 to -2062) | -22·2 | (-31·7 to -9·5) | -0·9 |
| II.I Digestive diseases | 153,250 | (145,286 to 161,215) | 146,225 | -7025 | (-14,990 to 939) | -4·6 | (-9·3 to 0·6) | -1·2 |
| III.A Non-traffic related accidents | 52,256 | (47,495 to 57,016) | 43,524 | -8732 | (-13,492 to -3971) | -16·7 | (-23·7 to -8·4) | -1·5 |
| I.A Infectious and parasitic diseases | 48,050 | (43,325 to 52,776) | 38,058 | -9992 | (-14,718 to -5267) | -20·8 | (-27·9 to -12·2) | -1·7 |
| II.A Malignant neoplasms | 191,554 | (182,637 to 200,472) | 181,428 | -10,126 | (-19,044 to -1209) | -5·3 | (-9·5 to -0·7) | -1·7 |
| Total | 1,573,999 | (1,548,533 to 1,599,464) | 2,174,589 | 600,592 | (575,125 to 626,056) | 38·2 | (36·0 to 40·4) | 100 |
| I.B Respiratory infections + I.B.01.b COVID-19 | 76,692 | (70,716 to 82,667) | 541,845 | 465,153 | (459,178 to 471,129) | 60·5 | (55·5 to 66·2) | 77·4 |
| II.G Cardiovascular diseases (II.G + II.G.02.0 + II.G.03.0 + II.G.04.0) | 413,983 | (400,947 to 427,019) | 516,053 | 102,070 | (89,034 to 115,106) | 24·7 | (20·9 to 28·7) | 16·9 |
| Respiratory infections+Cardiovasculares+Diabetes mellitus+Covid-19 | 709,037 | (691,985 to 726,090) | 1,356,555 | 647,518 | (630,465 to 664,570) | 91·3 | (86·8 to 96·0) | 107·8 |
| II.J Genitourinary system diseases: Other genitourinary system diseases + Nephritis and nephrosis | 58,042 | (53,079 to 63,005) | 55,771 | -2271 | (-7234 to 2692) | -3·9 | (-11·5 to 5·1) | -0·3 |
| III.A Accidents: Motor vehicle road injuries + Other injuries | 67,481 | (62,257 to 72,706) | 60,587 | -6894 | (-12119 to -1670) | -10·2 | (-16·7 to -2·7) | -1·1 |
| III.B Intentional injuries: Self-harm (suicides)+ Assaults (homicides) | 67,357 | (62,110 to 72,604) | 66,409 | -948 | (-6195 to 4299) | -1·4 | (-8·5 to 6·9) | -0·16 |
Source: Prepared by the authors on information from the Epidemiological and Statistical Subsystem of Deaths (SEED), 2020–2021.