Table A1.
Data Used in Regressions.
| City | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flu-related excess death rate 9/18–2/19 | Relative peak flu-related excess death rate | NPI | School closings | Public gatherings | |
| Albany | 1.25 | 6.92 | 0.129 | 0.090 | 0.038 |
| Atlanta | 0.79 | 3.30 | 0.240 | 0.112 | 0.049 |
| Baltimore | 1.43 | 7.84 | 0.118 | 0.071 | 0.047 |
| Birmingham | 1.38 | 2.82 | 0.132 | 0.071 | 0.060 |
| Boston | 1.58 | 5.33 | 0.137 | 0.071 | 0.066 |
| Buffalo | 1.19 | 6.35 | 0.134 | 0.077 | 0.058 |
| Cambridge | 1.18 | 5.60 | 0.134 | 0.071 | 0.063 |
| Chicago | 0.85 | 5.40 | 0.186 | 0.000 | 0.107 |
| Cincinnati | 1.01 | 3.51 | 0.337 | 0.173 | 0.164 |
| Cleveland | 1.09 | 4.22 | 0.271 | 0.063 | 0.077 |
| Columbus | 0.71 | 3.65 | 0.403 | 0.186 | 0.216 |
| Dayton | 0.94 | 5.02 | 0.427 | 0.093 | 0.222 |
| Denver | 1.42 | 2.83 | 0.414 | 0.219 | 0.093 |
| Detroit | 0.67 | 4.09 | 0.077 | 0.030 | 0.047 |
| Fall River | 1.40 | 6.18 | 0.164 | 0.088 | 0.077 |
| Grand Rapids | 0.47 | 4.02 | 0.170 | 0.044 | 0.077 |
| Indianapolis | 0.66 | 3.22 | 0.225 | 0.104 | 0.066 |
| Kansas City MO | 1.35 | 2.94 | 0.466 | 0.205 | 0.115 |
| Los Angeles | 1.14 | 3.14 | 0.422 | 0.290 | 0.132 |
| Louisville | 0.93 | 4.22 | 0.397 | 0.162 | 0.162 |
| Lowell | 1.15 | 5.66 | 0.162 | 0.082 | 0.079 |
| Milwaukee | 0.63 | 3.13 | 0.362 | 0.107 | 0.148 |
| Minneapolis | 0.62 | 3.26 | 0.318 | 0.156 | 0.148 |
| Nashville | 1.38 | 6.13 | 0.151 | 0.071 | 0.079 |
| New Haven | 1.32 | 4.49 | 0.107 | 0.000 | 0.107 |
| New Orleans | 1.65 | 5.59 | 0.214 | 0.112 | 0.101 |
| New York | 1.03 | 4.71 | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Newark | 1.20 | 4.53 | 0.090 | 0.052 | 0.038 |
| Oakland | 1.17 | 5.09 | 0.348 | 0.110 | 0.088 |
| Omaha | 1.27 | 3.48 | 0.384 | 0.077 | 0.118 |
| Philadelphia | 1.69 | 7.93 | 0.140 | 0.077 | 0.063 |
| Pittsburgh | 1.78 | 3.89 | 0.145 | 0.068 | 0.077 |
| Portland OR | 1.13 | 2.82 | 0.444 | 0.101 | 0.096 |
| Providence | 1.28 | 4.35 | 0.115 | 0.060 | 0.055 |
| Richmond | 1.13 | 5.33 | 0.164 | 0.082 | 0.082 |
| Rochester | 0.84 | 4.65 | 0.148 | 0.074 | 0.074 |
| San Francisco | 1.50 | 5.14 | 0.184 | 0.101 | 0.082 |
| Seattle | 0.93 | 2.92 | 0.460 | 0.099 | 0.101 |
| Spokane | 1.04 | 3.82 | 0.449 | 0.189 | 0.181 |
| St. Louis | 0.81 | 3.66 | 0.392 | 0.200 | 0.192 |
| St. Paul | 0.91 | 3.25 | 0.077 | 0.033 | 0.044 |
| Syracuse | 1.24 | 6.36 | 0.107 | 0.058 | 0.049 |
| Toledo | 0.68 | 4.43 | 0.279 | 0.142 | 0.137 |
| Washington DC | 1.40 | 5.42 | 0.175 | 0.088 | 0.088 |
| Worcester | 1.39 | 4.88 | 0.121 | 0.060 | 0.060 |
| (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City | Quarantine | Public-health response time, PHRT | Flu-related gross death rate, Sep-Feb 1910–16 | Distance from Boston | Population 1910 |
| Albany | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.186 | 0.169 | 100.3 |
| Atlanta | 0.079 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 1.076 | 154.8 |
| Baltimore | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.230 | 0.401 | 558.5 |
| Birmingham | 0.000 | 0.025 | 0.220 | 1.182 | 132.7 |
| Boston | 0.000 | 0.036 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 670.6 |
| Buffalo | 0.000 | 0.033 | 0.160 | 0.455 | 423.7 |
| Cambridge | 0.000 | 0.038 | 0.196 | 0.003 | 104.8 |
| Chicago | 0.079 | −0.005 | 0.222 | 0.983 | 2185.3 |
| Cincinnati | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.182 | 0.869 | 363.6 |
| Cleveland | 0.132 | −0.005 | 0.134 | 0.640 | 560.7 |
| Columbus | 0.000 | 0.014 | 0.148 | 0.763 | 181.5 |
| Dayton | 0.112 | −0.014 | 0.156 | 0.833 | 116.6 |
| Denver | 0.101 | 0.025 | 0.172 | 1.972 | 213.4 |
| Detroit | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.166 | 0.707 | 465.8 |
| Fall River | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.216 | 0.053 | 119.3 |
| Grand Rapids | 0.049 | 0.047 | 0.090 | 0.837 | 112.6 |
| Indianapolis | 0.055 | 0.019 | 0.152 | 0.936 | 233.6 |
| Kansas City MO | 0.145 | 0.000 | 0.162 | 1.410 | 248.4 |
| Los Angeles | 0.000 | 0.014 | 0.120 | 2.983 | 319.2 |
| Louisville | 0.074 | 0.016 | 0.166 | 0.969 | 223.9 |
| Lowell | 0.000 | 0.030 | 0.194 | 0.030 | 106.3 |
| Milwaukee | 0.107 | 0.014 | 0.132 | 1.074 | 373.9 |
| Minneapolis | 0.014 | 0.016 | 0.134 | 1.391 | 301.4 |
| Nashville | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.244 | 1.105 | 110.4 |
| New Haven | 0.000 | 0.060 | 0.238 | 0.138 | 133.6 |
| New Orleans | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.228 | 1.526 | 339.1 |
| New York | 0.200 | −0.030 | 0.206 | 0.215 | 4767.9 |
| Newark | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.176 | 0.225 | 347.5 |
| Oakland | 0.151 | 0.011 | 0.128 | 3.089 | 150.2 |
| Omaha | 0.189 | 0.003 | 0.146 | 1.435 | 124.1 |
| Philadelphia | 0.000 | 0.022 | 0.182 | 0.308 | 1549.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.294 | 0.572 | 533.9 |
| Portland OR | 0.247 | 0.011 | 0.090 | 3.088 | 207.2 |
| Providence | 0.000 | 0.052 | 0.198 | 0.051 | 224.3 |
| Richmond | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.216 | 0.556 | 127.6 |
| Rochester NY | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.146 | 0.392 | 218.1 |
| San Francisco | 0.000 | 0.030 | 0.148 | 3.095 | 416.9 |
| Seattle | 0.260 | 0.014 | 0.080 | 3.039 | 237.2 |
| Spokane | 0.079 | 0.003 | 0.110 | 2.762 | 104.4 |
| St. Louis | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.196 | 1.171 | 687.0 |
| St. Paul | 0.000 | 0.096 | 0.106 | 1.383 | 214.7 |
| Syracuse | 0.000 | 0.052 | 0.154 | 0.312 | 137.2 |
| Toledo | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.132 | 0.754 | 168.5 |
| Washington DC | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.172 | 0.440 | 331.1 |
| Worcester | 0.000 | 0.041 | 0.192 | 0.043 | 146.0 |
| (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City | Area | Population Density 1910 | Flu-related excess death rate 1/18–4/18 | All-cause excess death rate 9/18–2/19 | Relative peak all-cause excess death rate 9/18–2/19 |
| Albany | 10.8 | 9.29 | −0.03 | 0.83 | 6.26 |
| Atlanta | 25.7 | 6.02 | 0.61 | 0.43 | 2.90 |
| Baltimore | 30.1 | 18.55 | 0.43 | 0.98 | 5.75 |
| Birmingham | 48.3 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 1.00 | 2.18 |
| Boston | 41.1 | 16.32 | 0.42 | 1.39 | 2.68 |
| Buffalo | 38.7 | 10.95 | 0.27 | 1.10 | 4.28 |
| Cambridge | 6.3 | 16.63 | 0.35 | 1.24 | 2.58 |
| Chicago | 185.1 | 11.81 | −0.22 | 0.65 | 4.79 |
| Cincinnati | 49.8 | 7.30 | 0.39 | 0.88 | 2.62 |
| Cleveland | 45.6 | 12.30 | 0.37 | 1.11 | 2.06 |
| Columbus | 20.3 | 8.94 | 0.22 | 0.59 | 2.30 |
| Dayton | 15.7 | 7.43 | 0.12 | 0.62 | 5.07 |
| Denver | 57.9 | 3.69 | 0.27 | 1.20 | 2.25 |
| Detroit | 40.8 | 11.42 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 2.66 |
| Fall River | 33.9 | 3.52 | −0.35 | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| Grand Rapids | 16.8 | 6.70 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 5.40 |
| Indianapolis | 33.0 | 7.08 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 3.00 |
| Kansas City MO | 58.5 | 4.25 | 0.76 | 1.08 | 2.09 |
| Los Angeles | 99.2 | 3.22 | −0.06 | 0.91 | 1.95 |
| Louisville | 20.7 | 10.82 | 0.78 | 1.01 | 2.93 |
| Lowell | 13.0 | 8.18 | 0.54 | 1.03 | 4.35 |
| Milwaukee | 22.8 | 16.40 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 3.41 |
| Minneapolis | 50.1 | 6.02 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 2.21 |
| Nashville | 17.1 | 6.46 | 1.09 | 1.33 | 4.24 |
| New Haven | 17.9 | 7.46 | 0.09 | 1.02 | 4.12 |
| New Orleans | 196.0 | 1.73 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 3.85 |
| New York | 286.8 | 16.62 | 0.32 | 0.75 | 4.35 |
| Newark | 23.2 | 14.98 | 0.44 | 0.99 | 4.16 |
| Oakland | 45.7 | 3.29 | 0.27 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Omaha | 24.1 | 5.15 | 0.23 | 2.87 | 1.87 |
| Philadelphia | 130.2 | 11.90 | 0.60 | 1.46 | 5.51 |
| Pittsburgh | 41.4 | 12.90 | 1.51 | 1.90 | 2.69 |
| Portland OR | 48.4 | 4.28 | 0.16 | 1.09 | 1.99 |
| Providence | 17.7 | 12.67 | 0.24 | 1.26 | 3.54 |
| Richmond | 10.0 | 12.76 | −0.04 | 0.68 | 4.99 |
| Rochester NY | 20.1 | 10.85 | 0.25 | 1.40 | 2.63 |
| San Francisco | 46.5 | 8.97 | 0.19 | 1.30 | 2.41 |
| Seattle | 55.9 | 4.24 | 0.17 | 0.86 | 1.86 |
| Spokane | 36.8 | 2.84 | 0.16 | 0.84 | 2.42 |
| St. Louis | 61.4 | 11.19 | 0.44 | 0.58 | 2.87 |
| St. Paul | 52.2 | 4.11 | 0.14 | 0.76 | 2.76 |
| Syracuse | 17.3 | 7.93 | 0.39 | 0.79 | 5.75 |
| Toledo | 25.0 | 6.74 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 3.10 |
| Washington DC | 60.0 | 5.52 | 0.52 | 0.92 | 4.60 |
| Worcester | 37.0 | 3.95 | 0.28 | 1.18 | 3.89 |
Notes to Table A1.
The sample comprises 45 of the 50 U.S. cities with center-city populations in 1910 above 100,000. These 45 have weekly data on flu-related excess death rates over the second and most deadly wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic: the 24 weeks from week ending September 14, 1918 to week ending February 22, 1919. The remaining 5 large cities lack parts of the weekly data over this period.
Flu-related excess death rates, including deaths attributed to pneumonia, are calculated as percent of city population and expressed at an annual rate. The cumulative flu-related excess death rate 9/18–2/19 refers to the 24-week sample from the week ending September 14, 1918 to the week ending February 22, 1919. These values are calculated from the weekly data given in Collins et al. (1930, Appendix Table B). (A typo in the data for Pittsburgh for November 23, 1918 was corrected based on the information in Davis, 1918). The flu-related excess death rate is calculated by Collins, op.cit., as the difference between the flu-related gross death rate for each city and week and the median of the flu-related gross death rates for the corresponding city and week for 1910–1916. The relative peak death rate is the ratio of the highest weekly flu-related excess death rate in the 24-week sample to the overall flu-related excess death rate.
The flu-related gross death rate for 1910–1916 is calculated from the median values shown for the September-February months in Collins et al. (1930, Appendix Table A). Excess death rate 1/18-4/18 is the cumulative flu-related excess death rate from January 1918 to April 1918, calculated from the monthly data given in Collins et al. (1930, Appendix Table A). The all-cause excess mortality rate is the gross death rate for all causes from September 1918 to February 1919 from U.S. Department of Commerce, 1920 and 1921 (Mortality Statistics 1918, pp. 123–132; Mortality Statistics 1919, pp. 109–118), less the average of the gross death rate for all causes for 1910–1916 (Mortality Statistics 1919, pp. 12–13). The relative peak all-cause death rate uses the peak monthly death rate from September 1918 to February 1919 from the same sources.
NPI is the duration in years of three forms of non-pharmaceutical interventions—school closings, prohibitions of public gatherings, and quarantine/isolation—over the 24-week sample, as estimated by Markel et al. (2007, Table 1 and supplemental figures). Data on NPIs for Atlanta and Detroit were obtained from information in, respectively, The Atlanta Constitution and The Detroit Free Press, Public Health Reports for the two cities, and the Influenza Encyclopedia, available at influenzaarchive.org. The three forms of NPIs are shown separately, and NPI is the sum of these three. The public-health response time or PHRT, defined in Markel et al. (2007, Table 1), is the difference in years between the date of the first NPI implementation and the time when the weekly flu-related excess death rate reached twice the median gross death rate applicable to the corresponding month in 1910–1916.
Distance from Boston is the minimum distance in thousands of miles from Google Maps. Population 1910 (in thousands) and area (in square miles) are for central cities from 1910 U.S. Census. Population density is the ratio of population to area.