Table 2.
Predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to (weeks of January 1 to April 12, 2020) and following (weeks of April 19 to June 7, 2020; weeks of June 14 to December 27, 2020) the peak of the first wave of the pandemic among community-dwelling individuals in Ontario, Canada.
| Characteristic | OR (95% CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks of January 1–April 12, 2020 | |||
| Week of testing (start date) | 0–10 (January 1–March 8) | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| 11 (March 15) | 1.95 (1.69–2.26) | ||
| 12 (March 22) | 3.63 (3.16–4.18) | ||
| 13 (March 29) | 4.87 (4.25–5.58) | ||
| 14 (April 5) | 4.69 (4.10–5.37) | ||
| 15 (April 12) | 2.99 (2.62–3.42) | ||
| Age group, years | 18–45 | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| 45–65 | 1.30 (1.24–1.37) | ||
| 65–75 | 1.38 (1.26–1.51) | ||
| 75–85 | 1.46 (1.30–1.63) | ||
| ≥ 85 | 1.60 (1.41–1.81) | ||
| Sex | Female | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| Male | 1.45 (1.31–1.60) | ||
| Rural dwelling | 0.96 (0.86–1.09) | 0.56 | |
| Income quintile | 1 (lowest) | 1.09 (1.01–1.17) | |
| 2 | 0.96 (0.89–1.03) | ||
| 3 | 1.05 (0.98–1.13) | ||
| 4 | 1.01 (0.94–1.08) | ||
| 5 (highest) | Referent | 0.005 | |
| Canadian immigrant | 1.53 (1.45–1.61) | < 0.0001 | |
| Frailty | 1.13 (1.01–1.25) | 0.03 | |
| Hospitalization or ED visits in 2019 | 0 | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| 1–2 | 0.77 (0.73–0.81) | ||
| 3 + | 0.54 (0.51–0.58) | ||
| Hypertension | 1.10 (1.04–1.17) | 0.001 | |
| Diabetes | 1.12 (1.05–1.20) | 0.001 | |
| Coronary artery disease | 0.78 (0.69–0.88) | < 0.0001 | |
| Heart failure | 0.96 (0.81–1.14) | 0.64 | |
| Stroke | 1.13 (0.89–1.42) | 0.31 | |
| Atrial fibrillation | 0.87 (0.77–0.99) | 0.03 | |
| Chronic kidney disease | 0.83 (0.74–0.93) | 0.001 | |
| HIV | 0.64 (0.41–0.98) | 0.04 | |
| Organ transplantation | 0.61 (0.36–1.01) | 0.05 | |
| Cancer | 0.70 (0.61–0.81) | < 0.0001 | |
| Liver disease | 0.66 (0.47–0.91) | 0.01 | |
| Lung disease | 0.83 (0.78–0.88) | < 0.0001 | |
| Influenza vaccination in 2019 | 0.98 (0.93–1.03) | 0.41 | |
| Regional smoking rate, per 1% | 1.00 (0.98–1.02) | 0.65 | |
| Regional obesity rate, per 1% | 0.98 (0.97–0.995) | 0.003 | |
| Regional racial/ethnic diversity rate, per 1% | 1.02 (1.01–1.03) | 0.002 | |
| Weeks of April 19–June 7, 2020 | |||
| Week of testing (start date) | 16 (April 19) | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| 17 (April 26) | 0.65 (0.62–0.70) | ||
| 18 (May 3) | 0.49 (0.46–0.52) | ||
| 19 (May 10) | 0.49 (0.46–0.53) | ||
| 20 (May 17) | 0.68 (0.64–0.73) | ||
| 21 (May 24) | 0.34 (0.32–0.36) | ||
| 22 (May 31) | 0.22 (0.20–0.24) | ||
| 23 (June 7) | 0.15 (0.14–0.17) | ||
| Age group (years) | 18–45 | 1.58 (1.40–1.80) | |
| 45–65 | 1.43 (1.27–1.62) | ||
| 65–75 | 1.23 (1.08–1.40) | ||
| 75–85 | 1.11 (0.97–1.28) | ||
| ≥ 85 | Referent | < 0.0001 | |
| Sex | Female | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| Male | 1.67 (1.52–1.83) | ||
| Rural dwelling | 0.90 (0.79–1.04) | 0.14 | |
| Income quintile | 1 (lowest) | 2.01 (1.87–2.16) | |
| 2 | 1.53 (1.43–1.65) | ||
| 3 | 1.46 (1.36–1.57) | ||
| 4 | 1.27 (1.17–1.37) | ||
| 5 (highest) | Referent | < 0.0001 | |
| Canadian immigrant | 1.82 (1.75–1.90) | < 0.0001 | |
| Frailty | 0.94 (0.84–1.06) | 0.32 | |
| Hospitalization or ED visits in 2019 | 0 | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| 1–2 | 0.97 (0.93–1.01) | ||
| 3 + | 0.82 (0.77–0.87) | ||
| Hypertension | 1.07 (1.01–1.12) | 0.02 | |
| Diabetes | 1.32 (1.24–1.40) | < 0.0001 | |
| Coronary artery disease | 0.82 (0.73–0.93) | 0.002 | |
| Heart failure | 0.86 (0.71–1.05) | 0.14 | |
| Stroke | 1.05 (0.82–1.34) | 0.71 | |
| Atrial fibrillation | 0.92 (0.80–1.04) | 0.17 | |
| Chronic kidney disease | 0.70 (0.62–0.78) | < 0.0001 | |
| HIV | 0.67 (0.48–0.95) | 0.03 | |
| Organ transplantation | 0.71 (0.42–1.20) | 0.20 | |
| Cancer | 0.53 (0.45–0.62) | < 0.0001 | |
| Liver disease | 0.65 (0.47–0.90) | 0.009 | |
| Lung disease | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | < 0.0001 | |
| Influenza vaccination in 2019 | 0.78 (0.74–0.82) | < 0.0001 | |
| Regional smoking rate, per 1% | 0.99 (0.97–1.01) | 0.25 | |
| Regional obesity rate, per 1% | 1.01 (1.00–1.02) | 0.30 | |
| Regional racial/ethnic diversity rate, per 1% | 1.05 (1.03–1.06) | < 0.0001 | |
| Weeks of June 14–December 27, 2020 | |||
| Week of testing (start date) | 24 (June 14) | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| 25 (June 21) | 1.18 (1.12–1.23) | ||
| 26 (June 28) | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | ||
| 27 (July 5) | 0.78 (0.73–0.82) | ||
| 28 (July 12) | 0.81 (0.77–0.86) | ||
| 29 (July 19) | 0.77 (0.73–0.82) | ||
| 30 (July 26) | 0.71 (0.67–0.75) | ||
| 31 (August 2) | 0.65 (0.61–0.70) | ||
| 32 (August 9) | 0.65 (0.61–0.70) | ||
| 33 (August 16) | 0.66 (0.62–0.71) | ||
| 34 (August 23) | 0.74 (0.70–0.79) | ||
| 35 (August 30) | 0.76 (0.71–0.80) | ||
| 36 (September 6) | 0.96 (0.91–1.01) | ||
| 37 (September 13) | 1.08 (1.02–1.13) | ||
| 38 (September 20) | 1.20 (1.14–1.26) | ||
| 39 (September 27) | 1.35 (1.29–1.42) | ||
| 40 (October 4) | 1.42 (1.36–1.49) | ||
| 41 (October 11) | 1.75 (1.67–1.83) | ||
| 42 (October 18) | 1.97 (1.88–2.06) | ||
| 43 (October 25) | 2.07 (1.98–2.17) | ||
| 44 (November 1) | 2.43 (2.33–2.54) | ||
| 45 (November 8) | 2.74 (2.62–2.86) | ||
| 46 (November 15) | 2.61 (2.50–2.72) | ||
| 47 (November 22) | 2.81 (2.70–2.94) | ||
| 48 (November 29) | 2.96 (2.84–3.09) | ||
| 49 (December 6) | 2.96 (2.84–3.08) | ||
| 50 (December 13) | 3.28 (3.15–3.42) | ||
| 51 (December 20) | 4.01 (3.84–4.18) | ||
| 52 (December 27) | 5.62 (5.39–5.87) | ||
| Age group (years) | 18–45 | 1.09 (1.03–1.14) | |
| 45–65 | 1.04 (0.99–1.09) | ||
| 66–75 | 0.87 (0.83–0.92) | ||
| 76–85 | 0.85 (0.81–0.90) | ||
| ≥ 85 | Referent | < 0.0001 | |
| Sex | Female | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| Male | 1.24 (1.20–1.27) | ||
| Rural dwelling | 1.03 (0.99–1.07) | 0.12 | |
| Income quintile | 1 (lowest) | 1.64 (1.60–1.67) | |
| 2 | 1.45 (1.42–1.48) | ||
| 3 | 1.39 (1.36–1.42) | ||
| 4 | 1.17 (1.15–1.19) | ||
| 5 (highest) | Referent | <0.0001 | |
| Canadian immigrant | 1.99 (1.96–2.01) | < 0.0001 | |
| Frailty | 0.97 (0.93–1.02) | 0.25 | |
| Hospitalization or ED visits in 2019 | 0 | Referent | < 0.0001 |
| 1–2 | 1.06 (1.04–1.07) | ||
| 3 + | 0.86 (0.83–0.89) | ||
| Hypertension | 1.08 (1.07–1.10) | < 0.0001 | |
| Diabetes | 1.33 (1.30–1.36) | < 0.0001 | |
| Coronary artery disease | 0.92 (0.88–0.96) | < 0.0001 | |
| Heart failure | 0.95 (0.88–1.03) | 0.20 | |
| Stroke | 0.90 (0.81–0.99) | 0.04 | |
| Atrial fibrillation | 0.86 (0.82–0.90) | < 0.0001 | |
| Chronic kidney disease | 0.95 (0.91–0.98) | 0.006 | |
| HIV | 0.86 (0.75–0.98) | 0.02 | |
| Organ transplantation | 1.01 (0.85–1.20) | 0.92 | |
| Cancer | 0.66 (0.63–0.69) | < 0.0001 | |
| Liver disease | 0.66 (0.58–0.75) | < 0.0001 | |
| Lung disease | 1.00 (0.98–1.02) | 0.95 | |
| Influenza vaccination in 2019 | 0.75 (0.74–0.77) | < 0.0001 | |
| Regional smoking rate, per 1% | 0.99 (0.98–0.99) | < 0.0001 | |
| Regional obesity rate, per 1% | 1.00 (1.00–1.01) | 0.03 | |
| Regional racial/ethnic diversity rate, per 1% | 1.04 (1.03–1.05) | < 0.0001 | |
Odds ratios were determined from a multivariable logistic regression model that incorporated PHU-specific random effects.
For continuous variables, results are per 1-unit increase in rate.
In the early stages of modelling, there was significant heterogeneity in the overall model between age and week of testing (P-interaction < 0.0001), hence results are presented stratified prior to and following the peak of the first wave of the pandemic until the end of 2020.
CI confidence intervals, ED emergency department, HIV human immunodeficiency virus, OR odds ratio.