Table 3.
Model Correspondence With the AREDS Score
| Model's Labels | Model 5-y Risk Probabilitiesa | Assigned Ranges for AREDS Score's 5-y AMD Risk Probabilitiesb | AREDS Score | AREDS Score Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low risk | 0–37.1% | 0–1% | 0 | Very low |
| 37.1–41.2% | 1–5% | 1 | Low | |
| High risk | 41.2–50.0% | 5–19% | 2 | Mid-low |
| 50.0–59.5% | 19–31% | 3 | Mid-high | |
| 59.5–100% | 31–50% | 4 | High |
The model 5-year risk probabilities percentage ranges were obtained by splitting the probabilities of the model in five sections. The choice of probabilities resulting from the development risk model was made considering the criterion of specificity and sensitivity. The resulting cutoff points were 0.371 (between AREDS 0 and 1, sensibility >95% [95.11%]); 0.412 (between AREDS 1 and 2, sensibility approximately 90% [89.7%]); and 0.595 (between AREDS 3 and 4, specificity >90% [90.06%]) (See Fig. 2).
The choice of the risk of developing AMD at 5 years taking into account the risks of AREDS was made by building ranges based on the results obtained in Ferris et al.4 In order to determine the result that the website returns for the model probabilities for each range, linear extrapolations were performed. It was decided that the website did not return risk percentages of more than 50%.