Table 2.
Musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs and trends in China from 2020 to 2030.
| Prevalence | YLDs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2030 | 2020–2030 | 2020 | 2030 | 2020–2030 | |||||
| Health condition | Number |
ASRs per 100,000 persons, mean (95% PI) |
Number |
ASRs per 100,000 persons, mean (95% PI) |
EAPCs (95% CI) |
Number |
ASRs per 100,000 persons, mean (95% PI) |
Number |
ASRs per 100,000 persons, mean (95% PI) |
EAPCs (95% CI) |
| Musculoskeletal disorders | 341,992,073 | 18,410.7 (17,729.7–19,091.7) |
465,882,556 | 21,151.0 (14,872.6–27,429.3) |
1.39 (1.26–1.53)* |
29,697,769 | 1,595.5 (1,535.1–1,656.0) |
40,111,805 | 1,811.2 (1,232.5–2,390.0) | 1.27 (0.82–1.73)* |
| Low back pain | 93,928,096 | 5,262.2 (5,078.4–5,446.1) |
121,364,886 | 5,735.4 (3,068.1–8,402.6) |
0.87 (0.61–1.12)* |
10,611,571 | 594.9 (574.2–615.5) |
13,532,637 | 646.0 (348.5–943.6) |
0.83 (0.08–1.59)* |
| Neck pain | 68,279,122 | 3,725.7 (3,649.3–3,802.2) |
74,429,258 | 3,640.8 (2,967.0–4,314.6) |
−0.23 (−0.54 to 0.08) |
6,820,741 | 373.9 (366.4–381.3) |
7,359,385 | 364.3 (297.4–431.2) |
−0.26 (−1.22 to 0.71) |
| Fractures | 70,921,936 | 3,774.5 (3,595.5–3,953.5) |
154,499,784 | 6,176.9 (1,669.4–10,684.4) |
5.04 (4.76–5.32)* |
4,077,581 | 218.1 (207.9–228.3) | 9,090,125 | 366.7 (88.5–645.0) |
5.32 (4.16–6.50)* |
| Other injuries | 41,984,669 | 2,366.6 (2,267.8–2,465.5) |
53,470,459 | 2,575.5 (1,237.6–3,913.3) |
0.84 (0.47–1.22)* |
1,125,677 | 63.4 (60.5–66.4) | 1,682,199 | 77.0 (20.2–133.8) | 1.95 (−0.30 to 4.25) |
| Osteoarthritis | 87,623,502 | 4,216.1 (4,098.7–4,333.6) |
107,304,839 | 4,133.8 (3,037.4–5,230.3) |
−0.20 (−0.49 to 0.09) |
4,826,299 | 232.0 (225.5–238.5) | 5,897,512 | 227.5 (165.3–289.6) |
−0.20 (−1.43 to 1.04) |
| Amputation | 29,692,250 | 1,640.3 (1,556.6–1,724.0) |
58,457,346 | 2,563.5 (807.5–4,319.5) | 4.56 (4.13–4.99)* |
831,874 | 45.6 (43.8–47.4) |
1,718,949 | 73.2 (18.5–127.9) |
4.83 (2.29–7.44)* |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 3,232,565 | 166.3 (159.8–172.8) |
4,666,850 | 190.3 (62.3–318.4) |
1.35 (−0.06 to 2.79) |
591,462 | 30.5 (29.4–31.7) |
839,765 | 34.8 (12.3–57.3) |
1.31 (−1.95 to 4.68) |
*
The annual percentage change in an age-standardized rate did not include 0. 95% PI: 2.5–97.5% predictive interval. ASRs, age-standardized rates; EAPCs, estimated annual percentage changes; UI, uncertainty interval; YLDs, years lived with disability.