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. 2022 Jun 29;17(6):e0268766. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268766

Table 4. Total cumulative undiscounted health and social care costs, value of informal care, and value of QALYs (where 1 QALY valued at £60,000) for adults aged 35–100 in England and Wales, over 10 years from 2020–2029.

Population Scenario Healthcare Social care Value of informal care Total costs Value of QALYs lost (billions)
  Scenario 1 62.9 12.1 38.3 113.2 77.2
(49.8 to 75.5) (9.5 to 14.5) (30.3 to 46.0) (89.6 to 136.0) (79.5 to 75.5)
CVD Scenario 2 49.7 10 30.9 90.6 61.2
(39.2 to 60.0) (7.8 to 12.0) (24.3 to 37.1) (71.2 to 109.0) (63.5 to 59.5)
  Difference (1–2) 13.1 2.1 7.4 22.6 16.1
(9.8 to 16.7) (1.6 to 2.7) (5.6 to 9.4) (17.0 to 28.7) (13.1 to 19.0)
  Scenario 1 17.4 52.7 36 106.1 42.8
(13.8 to 21.1) (41.7 to 63.4) (28.6 to 43.5) (84.1 to 128.1) (45.3 to 40.4)
Dementia Scenario 2 17.7 52.5 36.1 106.3 43.1
(13.9 to 21.3) (41.2 to 63.2) (28.3 to 43.5) (83.4 to 127.8) (45.8 to 40.6)
  Difference (1–2) -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3
(-1.6 to 1.2) (-2.5 to 2.8) (-2.7 to 2.5) (-6.7 to 6.3) (-3.7 to 3.4)
  Scenario 1 800.6 141.9 285.1 1,228.00 -15,247.30
  (631.8 to 960.6) (112.4 to 170.4) (225.8 to 342.7) (970.4 to 1,472.0) (-15,222.2 to -15,270.9)
Whole population aged 35–100 Scenario 2 788.5 140.6 277.5 1,206.60 -15,279.40
  (623.1 to 943.6) (111.1 to 168.2) (219.4 to 332.1) (952.6 to 1,443.0) (-15,253.9 to -15,304.3)
  Difference (1–2) 12.5 1.5 7.7 21.6 32.3
  (8.9 to 16.7) (-0.8 to 3.9) (3.3 to 12.5) (13.0 to 31.9) (-3.5 to 69.6)

£billions in 2019 prices (95% uncertainty intervals in brackets). Comparing Scenario 1 –CVD Plateau, with Scenario 2- CVD Fall.

Note: QALYs are quality adjusted life years. QALYs for CVD and dementia are QALYs lost through disease; QALYs across the whole population is QALYs experienced, so is displayed as a negative value, as it is QALYs lived rather than lost. Data sources same as Table 1.