Table 2.
Cumulative number of averted deaths (in thousands) in 2035 with a post-COVID-19 intervention initiated in 2022 in each of the countries studied.
| Number of averted deaths (in thousands) by 2035 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Diagnosis effort | T = 2 years | T = 3 years | T = 4 years | |||
| Indonesia | 1.15 | 36 | (31–43) | 52 | (44–61) | 66 | (57–78) |
| 1.30 | 67 | (57–79) | 93 | (80–110) | 118 | (102–139) | |
| 1.45 | 93 | (79–109) | 128 | (110–150) | 160 | (139–187) | |
| Kenya | 1.15 | 9 | (7–13) | 13 | (10–19) | 17 | (12–24) |
| 1.30 | 18 | (13–25) | 25 | (18–35) | 32 | (23–45) | |
| 1.45 | 25 | (18–35) | 35 | (26–50) | 45 | (32–63) | |
| India | 1.15 | 121 | (98–156) | 173 | (141–224) | 223 | (182–288) |
| 1.30 | 223 | (178–294) | 315 | (254–418) | 402 | (326–532) | |
| 1.45 | 309 | (246–419) | 432 | (347–586) | 547 | (444–735) | |
| Pakistan | 1.15 | 14 | (12–16) | 20 | (17–23) | 27 | (23–30) |
| 1.30 | 25 | (22–29) | 36 | (31–41) | 47 | (41–53) | |
| 1.45 | 35 | (30–39) | 49 | (43–56) | 64 | (56–71) | |
The values in the table are computed by calculating the difference between the model forecast for mortality with the pandemic scenario and with non-pharmaceutical interventions of different intensities of diagnosis effort and duration of the recovery period. Values are the median of the outcome and figures in parentheses are the 95% CI of the model projections.