Table 2.

Estimates of the NKPC with survey-based expectations

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
One period lagged inflation	0.457**	0.450**	0.463**	0.440**
	(3.57)	(3.49)	(4.24)	(5.92)
Expected inflation (3 months ahead)	0.000228	0.000334	− 0.000922	0.000129
	(0.33)	(0.46)	(− 1.17)	(0.15)
Output gap (HP)	0.0280		− 0.241**
	(0.84)		(− 5.43)
Output gap (D–T)		0.0330		− 0.161**
		(0.96)		(− 4.10)
Oil price (growth rate)	0.0187	0.0168	0.0916**	0.0706**
	(1.05)	(0.94)	(6.81)	(3.79)
q1	0.0204**	0.0182**	0.00697**	0.0208**
	(3.91)	(4.00)	(2.71)	(7.37)
q2	0.0291**	0.0261**	0.0154**	0.0338**
	(6.01)	(5.65)	(5.38)	(11.17)
q3	0.00890*	0.00882*	0.00257	0.00499**
	(2.06)	(2.08)	(1.82)	(3.34)
Constant	− 0.00696	− 0.00660	0.0124	− 0.00626
	(− 1.06)	(− 1.08)	(1.76)	(− 0.83)
Observations	55	55	46	46
Adjusted R2	0.533	0.535	0.067	0.264
Hansen’s J (χ2)			1.375	1.573
p value			0.711	0.665

(1) t statistics in parentheses, (2) ** and * indicate significance at the 1 and 5 percent level, respectively, (3) q1 … q3 are quarterly dummies