Fig. 2.

Evolution of the first wave. (A) Weekly number of deaths in New York (NY) and Seattle (ST) metro areas. The dots/triangles represent the reported surveillance data used in the calibration of the models. The lines represent the median of the model ensemble for each location and the shaded areas the 95% CI of the calibrated model (17). (B) Evolution of the effective reproduction number according to the output of the simulation. The solid (dashed) line represents the median of the model ensemble and the shaded areas the 95% CI of the model. (C) Estimated prevalence in our model (median represented with solid/dashed lines and 95% CI with the shaded area) and values reported by the CDC (dots/triangles represent New York and Seattle data, respectively) (18). (D) Estimated number of deaths if the NPIs had been applied in New York 1 wk earlier/later. Solid (dashed) lines represent the median of the model ensemble and the shaded areas the 95% CI. (E) Estimated evolution of the effective reproduction number if the measures had been applied in New York 1 wk earlier/later. Solid (dashed) lines represent the median of the model ensemble. (F) Estimated prevalence in New York (Left) and Seattle (Right) if the NPIs had been applied in New York 1 wk earlier/later and in Seattle 1 wk later. The height of the bars represents the median of the model ensemble, while the vertical error bars represent the 95% CI. The dot/triangle shows the value reported by the CDC for the last week of April 2020.