Table 2.
MAIHDA models predicting likelihood of experiencing mental distress, declaring chronic mental illness, or declaring self-harm in the last year (at age 25), split by university attendance.
| Adulthood mental health problems at age 25 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mental distress (GHQ) |
Chronic mental illness |
Self-harmed |
||||
|
No University N = 2497 |
University N = 2736 |
No University N = 2534 |
University N = 2751 |
No University N = 2470 |
University N = 2719 |
|
| Main Effects Model | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) |
| Intercept | 0.28 (0.22, 0.36)* | 0.45 (0.37, 0.54)* | 0.04 (0.02, 0.06)* | 0.05 (0.04, 0.08)* | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02)* | 0.01 (0.01, 0.03)* |
| Adolescent mental distress at either ages 15 or 17 (GHQ) (Ref: No mental distress at both ages 15 or 17) |
3.06 (2.50, 3.79)* | 2.31 (1.93, 2.76)* | 2.61 (1.82, 3.61)* | 1.40 (0.96, 1.95) | 3.46 (1.99, 5.78)* | 2.87 (1.63, 5.24)* |
| Female (Ref: Male) | 1.31 (1.06, 1.59)* | 1.31 (1.08, 1.54)* | 1.43 (1.01, 1.96)* | 1.52 (1.04, 2.14)* | 1.45 (0.89, 2.24) | 1.33 (0.76, 2.09) |
| Social deprivation (IDACI) (Ref: Lowest deprivation) | ||||||
| Medium deprivation | 1.37 (1.04, 1.73)* | 0.84 (0.68, 1.03) | 1.47 (0.95, 2.03) | 0.88 (0.58, 1.32) | 1.32 (0.73, 2.17) | 0.85 (0.44, 1.48) |
| Highest deprivation | 1.39 (1.05, 1.79)* | 0.94 (0.72, 1.18) | 1.55 (1.00, 2.26)* | 1.22 (0.74, 1.99) | 1.18 (0.63, 2.06) | 1.08 (0.50, 2.01) |
| Sexual minority (Ref: Heterosexual/straight) | 2.14 (1.44, 3.03)* | 2.15 (1.50, 2.99)* | 3.87 (2.50, 5.88)* | 4.02 (2.52, 6.07)* | 7.19 (3.86, 11.74)* | 3.85 (2.01, 6.78)* |
| Ethnicity (Ref: White) | ||||||
| Black | 1.06 (0.65, 1.60) | 0.92 (0.63, 1.29) | 0.29 (0.07, 0.67)* | 0.32 (0.11, 0.73)* | 0.96 (0.24, 2.30) | 0.0001 (0.00, 0.00) |
| Asian | 0.75 (0.55, 1.00) | 1.00 (0.79, 1.25) | 0.33 (0.15, 0.60)* | 0.33 (0.17, 0.57)* | 0.57 (0.18, 1.23) | 0.69 (0.30, 1.28) |
| Other Ethnic Group (including mixed) |
0.77 (0.50, 1.18) |
0.94 (0.65, 1.30) |
0.64 (0.25, 1.19) |
0.76 (0.37, 1.31) |
1.02 (0.30, 2.25) |
1.84 (0.82, 3.43) |
| Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | |
| Between-Strata Variance | 0.02 (0.001, 0.07) | 0.01 (0.0004, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.001, 0.14) | 0.03 (0.001, 0.20) | 0.05 (0.001, 0.30) | 0.07 (0.001, 0.52) |
| DIC | 265.19 | 310.31 | 181.20 | 205.73 | 153.72 | 154.36 |
| VPC (%) |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
| Null Model | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) |
| Intercept |
0.74 (0.59, 0.93)* |
0.82 (0.67, 0.99)* |
0.09 (0.06, 0.12)* |
0.07 (0.05, 0.09)* |
0.04 (0.02, 0.06)* |
0.03 (0.02, 0.04)* |
| Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | |
| Between-Strata Variance | 0.48 (0.24, 0.86) | 0.31 (0.15, 0.61) | 0.81 (0.36, 1.58) | 0.56 (0.15, 1.29) | 1.49 (0.53, 3.06) | 1.02 (0.14, 2.86) |
| DIC | 294.25 | 338.89 | 206.53 | 239.63 | 171.94 | 177.88 |
| VPC (%) | 12.7 | 8.6 | 19.7 | 14.5 | 31.2 | 23.7 |
| PCV (%) | 96.1 | 97.8 | 96.8 | 94.2 | 96.6 | 93.0 |
Note. *95% credible intervals do not cross one, so effect is significant. OR = Odds Ratio. The Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used as a goodness-of-fit measure for Bayesian multilevel models; lower DIC scores indicate a better fit. Both the VPC and PCV values have been multiplied by 100 and presented as percentages.