Table 1.
Model Input
| Parameter | Value | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Epidemiology | ||
| Standardized incidence rate (per 100,000) | 7.4 | 5 |
| Average annual growth rate (for incidence rate) | 2% | [5] a |
| Statutory insurance coverage | 88% | [24] |
| Treatment and survival | ||
| Cure rate first-line | 60% – 70% | [6] |
| ASCT eligible | 50% | [25] |
| Salvage ORR | 63% | [26] |
| Salvage PFS | 50% | [26] |
| Salvage OS | 71% | [26] |
| ASCT rate | 35% | [27] |
| ASCT ORR | 70.50% | [27] |
| ASCT PFS | 65.50% | [28] |
| ASCT OS | 84% | [28] |
| Salvage ORR (transplant ineligible) | 61% | [10] |
| Salvage PFS (transplant ineligible) | 26% | [10] |
| Salvage OS (transplant ineligible) | 49% | [10] |
| Early mortality conventional chemotherapy | 2% | Based on experts |
| Early mortality ASCT | 5% | [25] b |
| Unit costs (mean values) in € | ||
| Tisagenlecleucel | 345,485 | LMU Hospital controllinga |
| Axicabtagene ciloleucel | 373,324 | LMU Hospital controllinga |
| Standard therapy second-line | 44,750 | [29] |
| Standard therapy third-line | 56,224 | [29] |
| Market share | ||
| Proportion treated with CAR T-cells (baseline) | 16.50% | [30] |
| Average annual growth rate | 23% | [31] c |
aOwn calculation based on data in “Sources.”
bConfirmed by experts.
cEstimation of the growth rate based on German CAR T-cell market projections.
ASCT = autologous stem-cell transplantation; CAR = chimeric antigen receptor; ORR = overall response rate; OS = overall survival; PFS = progression-free survival.