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. 2022 Jul 8;13:3942. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31394-1

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 6 — For France (a) and Italy (b), cumulative proportion of the population over age 60 who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the actual intervention deployment (blue) and in the no-intervention counterfactual scenario (red). The red shaded area is the 95% confidence interval centred around the main estimate. The counterfactual scenario is estimated via innovation diffusion theory. The black dashed vertical line is the date of the announcement of the COVID certificate.