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. 2022 Jul 8;13:3942. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31394-1

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 7 — a For France, Germany, and Italy, cumulative share of the population who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in the actual intervention deployment (blue), in the no-intervention counterfactual scenario via innovation diffusion theory (red) with 95% confidence interval centred around the main estimate (shaded red), and in the no-intervention synthetic control scenario (green, dashed). The red shaded area is the 95% confidence interval of the counterfactual scenario via innovation diffusion theory, which is centred around the main estimate. Note that the synthetic control scenario ends on 22 September 2021, when the method becomes infeasible. The black dashed vertical line is the date of the announcement of the COVID certificate. b Country weights for synthetic control for France, Germany, and Italy. c Placebos for France, Germany, and Italy in blue and in grey for donor pool countries. d Root mean squared prediction errors (RMSPE) ratios for France, Germany, and Italy (red) and the donor pool countries (blue).