Figure 5:

Schematic representation of the four main forces acting on pathogen transmission. Notes: (A) Effect of the four main forces on transmission. (B) Cumulative effect of the forces in three hypothetical countries. In countries 1 and 3, the cumulative effects of the four forces keep the epidemic from growing (R < 1), whereas in country 2, the epidemic is growing. (C) Epidemic behaviour over a 2-year period under a continental climate with blue area depicting colder months in the year and red warmer months. (D) Seasonal dynamic of endemic pathogen with smaller amplitude of cases and regular peaks during the colder months.