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. 2022 Jul 21;40:100614. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100614

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© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Fig. 1 — A. Age-structured SIRS model of RSV transmission with reinfections, immunity waning, births with maternal immunity and deaths. B. Simulated hospitalisations for children under 5 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Blue lines are accepted simulations (see Methods) with a negative log-likelihood lower than 1500 (corresponding to the best 15 % of fits, red dashed lines showing their median); grey lines are those discarded. Black dots show hospitalisation rates for England from SARI Watch (National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2021 to 2022 season, 2022). C. Likelihoods of accepted and rejected parameterisations. The x-axis shows the number of age groups the simulations correctly predict the attack rate. Dots highlighted in red were rejected because of a biennial seasonal pattern and those marked with ‘x’ because of less than 85% of cases within the RSV season (week 40–13).