TABLE 3.
Joinpoint regression analysis of trends in imputed ASIRs (after imputation) of lung cancer in three cancer registries in Japan, 1993 to 2015
| Category | AAPC (95% CI) | Trend 1 | Trend 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | APC (95% CI) | Period | APC (95% CI) | ||
| Male | 0.0 (−0.4 to 0.4) | 1993‐2011 | 0.5 (0.3 to 0.7)*** | 2011‐2015 | −2.1 (−4.2 to 0.0) |
| Histological type | |||||
| Small cell carcinoma | −0.5 (−1.0 to −0.1)* | 1993‐2015 | −0.5 (−1.0 to −0.1)* | ||
| Squamous cell carcinoma | −0.8 (−1.1 to −0.4)*** | 1993‐2015 | −0.8 (−1.1 to −0.4)*** | ||
| Adenocarcinoma | 1.6 (1.0 to 2.2)*** | 1993‐2010 | 2.2 (1.7 to 2.6)*** | 2010‐2015 | −0.5 (−2.8 to 1.9) |
| Stage at diagnosis | |||||
| Localized | 2.7 (2.4 to 3.1)*** | 1993‐2015 | 2.7 (2.4 to 3.1)*** | ||
| Regional | −2.0 (−2.5 to −1.6)*** | 1993‐2009 | −0.6 (−1.0 to −0.2)** | 2009‐2015 | −5.7 (−7.1 to −4.2)*** |
| Distant | 0.2 (−0.1 to 0.5) | 1993‐2015 | 0.2 (−0.1 to 0.5) | ||
| Stratified SMC | |||||
| Localized | −0.5 (−1.9 to 0.9) | 1993‐2015 | −0.5 (−1.9 to 0.9) | ||
| Regional | −2.3 (−3.8 to −0.8)** | 1993‐2009 | −0.6 (−1.8 to 0.6) | 2009‐2015 | −6.6 (−11.3 to −1.8)* |
| Distant | 0.2 (−0.5 to 0.8) | 1993‐2015 | 0.2 (−0.5 to 0.8) | ||
| Stratified SQC | |||||
| Localized | 0.1 (−0.7 to 0.8) | 1993‐2015 | 0.1 (−0.7 to 0.8) | ||
| Regional | −2.2 (−3.1 to −1.3)*** | 1993‐2010 | −1.2 (−1.8 to −0.6)*** | 2010‐2015 | −5.4 (−9.0 to −1.7)** |
| Distant | −0.2 (−1.3 to 0.9) | 1993‐2010 | 0.8 (0.1 to 1.6)* | 2010‐2015 | −3.7 (−7.8 to 0.6) |
| Stratified ADC | |||||
| Localized | 4.5 (3.9 to 5.0)*** | 1993‐2015 | 4.5 (3.9 to 5.0)*** | ||
| Regional | −1.5 (−2.5 to −0.6)** | 1993‐2009 | 0.7 (−0.1 to 1.5) | 2009‐2015 | −7.2 (−10.1 to −4.2)*** |
| Distant | 1.5 (1.1 to 1.9)*** | 1993‐2015 | 1.5 (1.1 to 1.9)*** | ||
| Female | 1.9 (1.5 to 2.2)*** | 1993‐2015 | 1.9 (1.5 to 2.2)*** | ||
| Histological type | |||||
| Small cell carcinoma | 0.2 (−0.7 to 1.0) | 1993‐2015 | 0.2 (−0.7 to 1.0) | ||
| Squamous cell carcinoma | 0.2 (−0.8 to 1.2) | 1993‐2015 | 0.2 (−0.8 to 1.2) | ||
| Adenocarcinoma | 2.5 (1.5 to 3.5)*** | 1993‐2012 | 3.3 (2.8 to 3.9)*** | 2012‐2015 | −2.7 (−9.3 to 4.3) |
| Stage at diagnosis | |||||
| Localized | 5.1 (4.6 to 5.7)*** | 1993‐2015 | 5.1 (4.6 to 5.7)*** | ||
| Regional | −2.2 (−3.8 to −0.7)** | 1993‐2011 | −0.2 (−1.0 to 0.7) | 2011‐2015 | −11.1 (−18.2 to −3.3)** |
| Distant | 0.7 (0.2 to 1.2)* | 1993‐2015 | 0.7 (0.2 to 1.2)* | ||
| Stratified SMC | |||||
| Localized | −2.8 (−5.2 to −0.4)* | 1993‐2015 | −2.8 (−5.2 to −0.4)* | ||
| Regional | −1.7 (−3.3 to −0.0)* | 1993‐2015 | −1.7 (−3.3 to −0.0)* | ||
| Distant | 1.6 (0.7 to 2.5)** | 1993‐2015 | 1.6 (0.7 to 2.5)** | ||
| Stratified SQC | |||||
| Localized | 1.0 (−0.6 to 2.7) | 1993‐2015 | 1.0 (−0.6 to 2.7) | ||
| Regional | 0.0 (−1.5 to 1.7) | 1993‐2015 | 0.0 (−1.5 to 1.7) | ||
| Distant | −0.1 (−1.5 to 1.2) | 1993‐2015 | −0.1 (−1.5 to 1.2) | ||
| Stratified ADC | |||||
| Localized | 5.7 (5.0 to 6.4)*** | 1993‐2015 | 5.7 (5.0 to 6.4)*** | ||
| Regional | −2.3 (−4.6 to 0.0) | 1993‐2011 | 0.5 (−0.7 to 1.7) | 2011‐2015 | −14.1 (−24.5 to −2.2)* |
| Distant | 1.6 (0.9 to 2.3)*** | 1993‐2015 | 1.6 (0.9 to 2.3)*** | ||
Note: ***, **, * Statistically significant results with P < .001, P < .01 and P < .05, respectively; The three Japanese cancer registries are in Yamagata, Fukui and Nagasaki prefectures.
Abbreviations: AAPC, average annual percentage change; ADC, adenocarcinoma; APC, annual percentage change; ASIRs, age‐standardized incidence rates; CI, confidence interval; SMC, small cell carcinoma; SQC, squamous cell carcinoma.