Figure 1.

Observed vs predicted probabilities of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) events at a 5-year risk in the development cohort and the external validation cohort. The predicted (white bar) and observed (black bar) event probabilities represent the mean predicted probability calculated from 5-year risk equations and the mean observed probability from the patients divided into deciles of the predicted probability, respectively. (a) Model 3 and (b) Model 5 in the development cohort. (c) Model 5 in the validation cohort and (d) Model 5 in the patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) (eGFR < 60 mL min⁻¹ [1.73 m]⁻² and/or positive proteinuria) (n = 1350) of the validation cohort. Nam and D’Agostino $\chi$² statistics were 22.4 and 7.7 for Models 3 and 5 in the development cohort, and 36.1 and 23.1 for Models 5 in the external validation cohort and Model 5 in the patients with CKD of the external cohort, respectively.