Table 2.
Temporal fluctuations in COVID-19-attributable in-hospital fatality rate and avoidable COVID-19-attributable deaths in hospitals
| Location | Observation period | COVID-19 attributable hospital admissions in unvaccinated residents | Age-standardized weekly COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rate (HFR) | Estimated avoidable COVID-19 deaths in hospitals | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Deathsa | Lowest (%)b | Highest (%)b | Fold increaseb | Assuming the lowest HFR in each city (%)c | Assuming the lowest HFR across all 14 cities (%)c | ||
| Belo Horizonte | 06/04/20–26/07/21 | 42,113 | 7,692 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 1.64 | 29.1 (24.6–33.7) | 29.1 (24.6–33.7) |
| Curitiba | 02/03/20–26/07/21 | 33,015 | 7,535 | 8.1 | 18.1 | 2.23 | 39.6 (34.2–44.7) | 47.3 (43.9–50.8) |
| Florianópolis | 09/03/20–26/07/21 | 4,032 | 893 | 7.8 | 17.1 | 2.20 | 22.9 (12.5–32.6) | 44.5 (40.9–48.1) |
| Goiânia | 16/03/20–26/07/21 | 20,044 | 6,246 | 11.6 | 25.9 | 2.23 | 44.7 (39.0–50.0) | 61.2 (58.6–63.7) |
| João Pessoa | 09/03/20–26/07/21 | 10,552 | 3,636 | 15.3 | 29.7 | 1.94 | 18.8 (13.0–25.1) | 65.9 (63.7–68.1) |
| Macapá | 30/03/20–26/07/21 | 3,169 | 1,011 | 11.0 | 41.5 | 3.78 | 41.6 (30.5–51.8) | 68.4 (66.2–70.6) |
| Manaus | 24/02/20–26/07/21 | 26,260 | 10,168 | 16.4 | 33.4 | 2.04 | 39.3 (35.9–42.3) | 70.9 (69–72.9) |
| Natal | 16/03/20–26/07/21 | 9,344 | 3,512 | 11.4 | 32.9 | 2.87 | 35.4 (30.2–40.5) | 66.9 (64.8–69) |
| Porto Alegre | 02/03/20–26/07/21 | 16,106 | 5,266 | 8.6 | 27.1 | 3.16 | 41.8 (37.7–45.7) | 59.6 (57.1–62.3) |
| Porto Velho | 30/03/20–26/07/21 | 6,795 | 2,473 | 11.5 | 32.2 | 2.79 | 39.1 (32.2–45.5) | 70.3 (68.3–72.4) |
| Rio de Janeiro | 16/03/20–26/07/21 | 73,139 | 28,053 | 19.2 | 26.0 | 1.35 | 10.2 (8.5–11.9) | 66.9 (64.8–69) |
| Salvador | 16/03/20–26/07/21 | 26,964 | 8,509 | 9.7 | 26.9 | 2.76 | 20.8 (16.2–25.2) | 61.3 (58.8–63.9) |
| São Luís | 24/02/20–26/07/21 | 8,545 | 2,547 | 8.2 | 26.5 | 3.25 | 35.7 (28.4–42.4) | 60.5 (57.9–63.1) |
| São Paulo | 20/01/20–26/07/21 | 182,288 | 42,769 | 8.8 | 19.8 | 2.24 | 36.2 (33.9%-–38.4) | 50.1 (46.9–53.4) |
| All 14 cities | 20/01/20–26/07/21 | 462,366 | 130,317 | 29.8 (28.7–30.9) | 57.1 (54.3–59.9) | |||
aObserved deaths plus expected deaths in COVID-19-attributable hospital admissions with unreported outcome.
bAge-specific COVID-19-attributable in-hospital fatality rates were estimated from linked data on underreporting-adjusted deaths in COVID-19-attributable hospital admissions. Non-parametric loess estimates were obtained and weighted by the population age composition across cities. Lowest fatality rates were calculated in the period before Gamma’s first detection in each location, and highest fatality rates were calculated including the time after Gamma’s first detection. The lowest fatality rates in the period before Gamma’s first detection agreed with those observed across the entire study period for all cities except Belo Horizonte. See the main text for further details and analyses.
cEstimates are based on hypothetical scenarios evaluated under the Bayesian multi-strain fatality model, assuming the lowest observed in-hospital fatality rates seen in the periods before Gamma’s first detection in each location.